Theoretical Analysis And Model Simulation For The Drivers’ Route Choice Behavior Response To Variable Message Signs

ABSTRACT:As one of the most important means to release guidance information in Advanced Travelers Information System (ATIS), Variable Message Sign (VMS) can guide the drivers’route choice behavior effectively to solve the traffic congestion problem to some extent. It is playing an increasing important role because of its convenience, high efficiency, widely used and high benefit. But now in China, VMS guidance information system is in primary stage. The technology is not mature enough, and the effectiveness does not reach the maximum, which limits its relief effect to the traffic flow. Therefore, it is imperative to study the impact of VMS on drivers’route choice behaviour.This paper mainly studies the drivers’route choice behavior response to the VMS guidance information based on Logit model, C-Logit model and the Aurora RNM simulation software. The paper mainly works as follows:(1) Building a multi-category ordinal Logit model to research the drivers’route choice behavior response to the guidance information:1) The male drivers tend to switch travel path according to VMS;2) The official car drivers prefer to switch travel path according to guidance information;3) The drivers whose yearly income is between150000and200000have the highest compliance rate;4) The risk-based drivers could have the highest compliance rate;5) The higher the trust degree in VMS is, the bigger compliance rate the drivers choose to switch path according to guidance information.(2) Establishing a C-Logit model and a Logit model based on the VMS guidance information to analyze the drivers’route choice behavior:1) The drivers’understanding travel time is not accurate;2) The bigger congestion level is, the bigger rate the drivers choose to switch path;3) The compliance rate increases with the distance from the destination lengthen;4) Although the congestion level and the distance from the destination affect the drivers’route choice behavior, the congestion level is more significant.(3) Building a Logit model based on the different congestion time and the different extra distance; Building a Logit model based on the different distance from the destination and the different extra distance to analyze the drivers’route choice behavior:1) The longer congestion time is, the bigger rate the drivers choose to switch path;2) The longer distance the drivers are from the destination, the bigger rate the drivers choose to switch path;3) The compliance rate increases with the extra distance shorten;4) Although the congestion time and the extra distance affect the drivers’route choice behavior, the extra distance is more significant;5) Although the distance from the destination and the extra distance affect the drivers’route choice behavior, the extra distance is more significant.(4) Making a simulation through Aurora RNM software, building the2nd Ring Road network, establishing the simulation condition, and analyzing the network condition under the VMS guidance information or not. Under the certain traffic demand and simulation circumstance, it is found in the paper that:VMS can reduce the total travel time under the low demand and the high demand; VMS can increase the total travel time under the medium demand.Numerical simulations are carried out to study the drivers’route choice behavior influenced by the drivers’personal characteristics, travel characteristics and VMS characteristics, VMS condition, the distance from the destination and so on.