Reliability Analysis Of300M Concrete Faced Rockfill Dam Deformation

To carry out reliability of dam deformation analysis is an effective method and development direction of the dam safety analysis and evaluation. This paper studies the reliability calculation method. This paper introduced the basic principle of structural reliability analysis method of maximum entropy method, modified FOSM method, RSM modified, Monte Carlo method, Rosenblueth method and ther improved method. In this paper the advantages and disadvantages of each method was pointed out. The ider of improve the success rate of solving the undetermined coefficient method was Put forward by control the length of integral interval and using the equation solving method of combinating genetic algorithm and matlab fsolve function.In this paper on the base of modified FOSM method, FOSM method was combined with finite element program to solve the problem of complex construction reliability analysis. Compared with RSM this method shows a better convergence at the same time it is more accurate and efficient. This article aims to put forward the concrete face rockfill dam reliability analysis method and analyze reliability of dam deformation. In this paper a method to evaluate the risk level of the concrete face rockfill dam was proposed by combining modified FOSM method and Rosenblueth method. In this paper analysis the dam cross section deformation by constructing a300m typical concrete face rockfill dam. Researching shows that the sensibility of the dam deformation to the parameters of Duncan E-B model is complex, and the parameter value, reference point, deformation category had a relationship with the sensibility. For horizontal deformation sensitivity decreases in the order of φ0、Rf、n、K、Δφ、m、Kb、Kur.The sensitivity of vertical settlement to parameter changes with the variation of position. φ0、Kb、m、Rf are the main factors influencing the vertical deformation. At the end of the paper by the analysis of the sensitivity of completion stage and water stage300m grade concrete faced rockfill dam settlement reliability indexes and reliability indexes of the panel deflection to coefficient of variation we found that the influence of the coefficient of variations of Kb、φ0on the settlement reliability index is far greater than the other three factors, while the coefficient of variations of Δφ、Rf have little influence on the settlement reliability index. For the reliability indexes of the panel deflection sensitivity decreases in the order of K、φ0、Rf、Kb、Δφ. The coefficient of variations of K、φ0are the main factors influencing the reliability indexes of the panel deflection.