Research Of Load Combination Forecasting And Third-party Logistics In Coal Stored

Source of electricity in China is dominated by thermal power plants, and the coalstock in them not only need to ensure the supply of social power, but also should try toreduce their remaining coal storage as much as possible to achieve the balance betweensupply and demand, making the maximized economic benefits to power plants. Thatmeans the problem of coal stock plays a crucial role in energy security and economicbenefits in the whole society. The fuel storage margin early warning system based on theabove background can do early warning to the coal storage and reduce grid security risksdue to coal shortage. This paper studies two parts which are problems of power loadforecasting and coal storage margin risk in this system.The short-term power load forecasting in provincial range is the core part of the earlywarning system, and improving the prediction accuracy is an important prerequisite forachieving early warning function. A combination forecasting method is proposed andapplied to this system.For this part, firstly the states of research in the field of short-term power loadforecasting is reviewed; then several typical prediction methods and models are introducedin detail and the suitable combination forecasting model based on ARIMA model andpolynomial trend extrapolation is selected to apply to the practical forecasting in thesystem. The results shows, this combination forecasting method can effectively improvethe forecasting accuracy compared to the two single prediction models.In addition, the problem of third-party logistics’ impact to the coal stored margin risk.The early warning system aims to reduce the risk of coal storage. From the point of viewof coal distribution mode, the application of the third-party logistics is proposed.For this part, firstly the research status of third-party logistics in coal storage field isreviewed; then the concept and structure of coal logistics system are introduced, and thedistribution models is described in classification; next the concept of third-party logisticsand the theoretical knowledge of inventory are briefly introduced, and the coal stored margin risk is defined based on these knowledge; at last, the third-party logistics is takeninto the field of coal storage problems, coal distribution mode based on third-partylogistics is proposed and applied to the practical analysis. The results shows, the coaldistribution mode of the third-party logistics can reduce the risk of coal storage margin.