A Study On Water Cycle In Social-economic System

The author choose Ganzhou district in the middle Heihe river basin as a researchobject.Firstly,design input-output tables, mixed type water resources input-outputtables and water resources input-output tables of Ganzhou in2002-2010on the basisof the basic principles of input-output analysis and the basic methods of input-outputtable. Secondly, analyze the influence factors of water resource utilization by usingstructural decomposition analysis model.Thirdly, summarize Water cycle of social andeconomic system within a partial perspective by using hypothetical extractionmethod,mutiplier effect analysis and structural path analysis. Finally, the authorconver traffic data in the input-output table into network flow diagram, summarizeWater cycle of social and economic system from whole angle by using ascendencytheory. combining with the research results, the article put forward reasonablesuggestions to strengthen the construction of water-saving in ganzhou district. Mainconclusions and suggestions are as follows:（1）During2002-2010, in all influence factors of water resource utilization, thecontribution to water use intensity and water final demand is the largest for thedecrease of water resource utilization consumption. Their contributies are267.66%and182.72%respectively. Industrial structure contributes83.99%to the decrease ofwater resource utilization consumption.（2）During2002-2010, internal effect of planting industry and constructionindustry gennerally show a trend of decrease. Internal effect of planting industryreduce from528.7869million cubic metres in2002to379.8211million cubic metersin2010. Internal effect of construction industry reduce from928.15million cubicmetres in2002to496.25million cubic meters in2010. It shows that planting industryand construction industry less reliance on their own and higher depend on otherdepartments to meet the final demand of water resources. Compared with otherdepartments, internal effect of planting industry is largest. In other words, plantingindustry to its own dependencies is the biggest. Mixed effect of service industry is thebiggest in six departments. It shows the services’ the final consumption of waterwhich equal to the services part of products was bought by the other departments as intermediate input to produce products and those products was bought by serviceindustry as intermediate input is the most. Net forward linkage of planting industry isslow rising trend, from3409.87cubic meters in2002to6258.91million cubicmeters in2010. Other department’s Net forward linkage are a trend of decrease,whichshows planting industry is net output sector. Net backward linkage of plantingindustry and animal industry is on the decline. Net backward linkage change ofplanting industry is most prominent, decreased from568.78million cubic metres in2002to37.90million cubic meters in2010, down by15times. It Further illustratesthe ganzhou district of other departments more and more dependent on plantingindustry.（3）In2010, water consumption of planting industry, which are transferred toother departments, are different and lots of water transfer to other department ofagriculture, net transfer2855.66million cubic meters; And transferred to theconstruction department of water resources is relatively small, net transfer126.09million cubic meters. water net transfer of Other agricultural departments includeindustry, service industry and construction industry, among which the amount aretransferred to the construction department are the most, is439.60million cubic meters.Water of other agricultural sectors are not transferred to planting industry, instead ofthe planting industry net input is2855.66million cubic meters of water resources.Therefore, planting industry is providers. The net transfer of industry only outputconstruction department, the net output of41.75million cubic meters. It showsindustrial departments not only meet its own needs but also meet construction industry.Net output of service industry contains industry and construction industry, a total ofnet output of61.66million cubic meters, far less than the amount of water transferfrom other department. Net transfer water of animal industry supplier only plantingindustry. So, correlation degree between planting industry and animal industry ishigher. Construction industry do not have water net transfer to other departments. Incontrast to,other departments have a certain amount of net water input to theconstruction industry. Therefore, construction industry is in the true sense net input ofthe water resources department. So, except for improving water saving technologyand optimization of industrial structure, we also consider alternative relations among departments of water resources, using social resources to deal with water management,implementting the strategy of virtual water, reducing the agricultural sector of finaldemand, focusing on the planting industry.（4）During2002-2010, output multiplier of industrial departments andconstruction industry in ganzhou district is obviously higher than other departments,the average mean value is2.88and2.61respectively, which means increased1yuanof final product, will make the industry department and construction department in themiddle of the consumption increased by2.88yuan and2.61yuan respectively. Itreflects the second industry in ganzhou district have the more strong tensile force thanthe first industry and the tertiary industry. Planting industry, animal industry and otheragricultural sectors of water resources output multiplier in Ganzhou district is higher,the average mean value is0.35cubic meters/yuan,0.34cubic meters/yuan,0.34cubicmeters/yuan respectively. That means planting industry increase1yuan final products,consumption of water resources will be increased by0.35cubic meters. animalindustry and other agricultural increase1yuan in the final product, water consumptionwill increase0.34cubic meters. As you can see the whole of agricultural waterresources the average output multiplier are significantly greater than the secondindustry and the third industry. It reflects quantitative relationship between theindustry development and the water consumption: the primary industry have a greatinfluence on renewable water resource utilization intensity. Considering the problemof farmers’ income and employment, the fundamental status of agricultural productioncan not shake, we can take the development of high-efficiency water savingecological agriculture, adjust the planting of crops type, such as low consumption ofwater crops, change the traditional irrigation methods, such as changing basinirrigation into sprinkler irrigation or drip irrigation technology,So as to realize the goalof high efficiency water-saving. We can develop the secondary industry, because itcan not only drive economic growth but also better solve the problem of water-saving.We can Strengthen the third industry, provide services to all social and economicdevelopment.（5）During2002-2010, every path in each year to completely the influencedegree of the water requirement change is not big and path is on the decline with the increase of order number. Direct path’ influence is the biggest to complete theinfluence degree of the water requirement, the largest all over75%. It shows finaldemand in Ganzhou is mainly through the direct path influence completely waterrequirement. In other words, when the department of final demand decreases, directlywater consumption will reduce.（6）In2010, direct demand of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiaryindustry in Ganzhou district caused by water demand completely change respectivelyaccounted for82.25%,0.82%and0.66%of total water demand change. Thisillustrates the area of the industrial structure is given priority to with the first industry.indirect demand of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry inGanzhou district caused by water demand completely change respectively accountedfor8.96%,1.51%and1.51%of total change. This illustrates the other departments onthe reliance of the agricultural sector is the largest. Directly and indirectly demand ofprimary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry caused by water demandcompletely change respectively accounted for91.21%,2.33%and0.75%of totalwater demand change. So,the first industry consumes the most water resources. In thefirst industry, planting industry is the most important. To improve the situation, wecan implement the strategy of virtual water, reduce the agricultural demand for localconsumption.（7）During2002-2010, development capacity and ascendency of water cycle ofsocial and economic system in ganzhou area has been reduced respectively, from873190.00104m3bits、263300.76104m3bits in2002, reduced to603854.87104m3bits、158331.05104m3bits in2010. Development capacity andascendency was reduced by1.45times and1.66times respectively. Therefore, thesystem is in the stage of aging. The total system throughput are decreasing, from310539.82104m3in2002to175076.21104m3in2010. This illustrateswater resources utilization limit the increase in total throughput.of system. Systemaverage mutual information showed a trend of slow increase, but the diversity of thesystem is also increased. Resilience of system is on the decline,because of decrease ofdevelopment capacity and ascendency. To change the system aging stage at present,towards a sustainable, mainly from two aspects: one is to improve the extensive effect of the system. Namely, improve the overall throughput of the system. Second is toimprove the strength effect of the system. Namely, improve the system’s ascendencyand development capacity. To improve system’s ascendency,we can strengthenaverage mutual information,which need to strengthen liquidity among water resourcedepartmentsand improve the correlation of industrial sectors. To improve system’sdevelopment capacity, we can add new sectors of the economy,or through fairallocation of water resources methods and so on.（8）During2002-2010, R characterized of system sustainability value is on thedecline, from278284.48104m3in2002to146319.81104m3in2010. At the sametime, the change trend of total throughput of system is decreasing, from310539.82104m3in2002to175076.21104m3in2010. Change range of system Fvalue is not large, according to the formula R=TF, the R value decreases because ofthe decrease of system throughput. If you want to improve R, you need to increase theF value.Namely, you need to increase a value named ascendency proportion in thedevelopment capacity. The a value change is very small, so you need to increase the avalue, so as to improve the health of the system. The larger contribution degree oforder1path for ganzhou district2010the structure of system towards the sustainabledevelopment contain industrial input, planting added value, planting final use, finaluse of animal industry, etc., contribution of2.39,1.22,1.06,1.03, respectively. Thesmaller contribution degree of order1path for ganzhou district2010the structure ofsystem towards the sustainable development contain construction industry-industrialdepartment, animal industry-service industry, planting industry-industrial departmentand so on, contribution is4.76,4.63,4.63respectively. To improve the sustainabilityof the system,it is the need to strengthen the sustainability of the great contribution tothe path, weakening the sustainability of the small contribution to the path..（9）During2002-2010, if the water resources of social and economic systemloop network is transformed into equivalent linear systems,we can found: theagricultural sector is the absolute basis of ganzhou area, among which plantingindustry is the most prominent. At the same time, in the most left end of theequivalent linear system, input water consumption are on the decline, which Ganzhouarea in recent years, in order to achieve the water conservation benefit, obviously control water consumption.