Research On Demand Forecasting And Production Decision-Making For Manufacture/Remanufacture Of Construction Machinery

Manufacture/remanufacture is a new kind of production mode that combines both traditional manufacture and remanufacture that can save resources and reduce the waste, so it has important practical significance. Comparing with traditional production mode, manufacture/remanufacture includes not only the process of traditional production mode but also remanufacturing part which involves many complex procedures, so the requirement on production decision-making, cooperation and organization management is higher.In this thesis, the demand forecasting and production decision-making problems for manufacture/remanufacture of construction machinery are investigated. On the basis of theory and methods on statistics and optimization, the demand forecasting and production decision-making problems for manufacture/remanufacture are analyzed, some new methods are presented, and some technical and theoretical problems are solved. The primary work in this thesis is given as follow:First of all, a new demand forecasting method is presented. On the basis of statistics by analyzing the features of manufacture/remanufacture and sales data, a new demand regression and forecasting method for manufacture/remanufacture is presented. A method for improving accuracy of prediction is given when new sale data are obtained.Secondly, a new kind optimization models is given. By investigating the features of manufacture/remanufacture especially the remanufacture part, a new kind of dynamical optimization models is given to describe the process of manufacture/remanufacture is presented, whose objective function is the cost.Thirdly, a new constraint-prior method based on Genetic Algorithm is presented. In order to solve the presented model, with the help of optimization methods and theory, a new constraint-prior method based on Genetic Algorithm is presented. The efficiency is proved by practical examples. Finally, the feasibility of the above methods is proved. By using the presented forecasting method and dynamical models for manufacture/remanufacture together in solving practical production decision-making problems, the feasibility of the above methods in solving such problems is shown.