Possible Mechanism Of Airplane Bumps And Its Application In Weather Prediction

Based on the basic atmospheric dynamical equations, the exact solutions arederived by using the integral transform method and the layered-flow dynamicalequations, where the two-layered flow, three-layered flow and multi-layered flow overtopography are considered. The airplane bump induced by the topography and layeredJet stream are analyzed according to the relationship between the aircraft load factorand the vertical velocity excited by layered flow over topography. The results showthat: the airplane bump caused by inertial instability often occurs in the area of highpressure where the stratification is stable in atmosphere, while the airplane bumpcaused by convective instability often occurs in the area of low pressure.Reanalyzed data are used to investigate the formation of an airplane bump whichhappens on May10,2012. Via diagnosis of the background weather situation,associated with the dynamic or thermodynamic conditions, the possible causes of theairplane bump are revealed. Conclusions are as follows: airplane bumps caused byinertial instability, which occur in the regions of high-level anticyclone with strongwinds and wind shear. The instability of inertial can induce that gravity waves to bebroken and the turbulence can occur when the wind shear is getting large enough. Thetheoretical research and diagnostic analysis above show the possible mechanism ofairplane bumps induced by the interaction of topography and layered Jet stream. Theresults can improve the forecast of airplane bump.