Research On The Sino-Myanmar Border Of Yunnan Ruili Freight Forecastbased On Weight Variable Combination Model

With the increasing rate of economic globalization and regional economicintegration，and our country western development strategy progressing smoothly，especially the Lancang River—Mekong sub-regional cooperation development andAsean free trade area built completely, Ruili located in the Sino-Myanmar border ofsouthwest Yunnan province,it`s intersection of China economy area, Asean economiccircle and South Asia economic circle appears to be more outstanding.In2010,thePartyCentralCommittee and the StateDepartmenttakeabroadandlong-termview,clearly put forward will actively promote Ruili of Yunnan to construction of keydevelopment experimental zone, the local government seize rare historical opportunitiesto make the plan quickly,in this plan, the international logistics park is one of theimportant planning construction.In order to make rationality，scientific and advancednature of the this plan is guaranteed. thefuture freight volumeforecast of Ruili is verynecessary. The current literature on the border area of freight volume prediction researchis not much, and most of them mainly use single model toforecast，but in the complexexternal environment and in face of the influence factors, and can’t keep good predictionaccuracy.This paper is mainly summarize and evaluate the domestic and international freightforecast,forecast volumes in the border area and variable weight combination forecastmodel.From the border trade development, level of economic development, nationalsecurity and condition of the traffic,to analysis the main influencing factors of theSino-Myanmar border region. present and establish the region’s freight volume forecastindex system, and then, establish three kinds of single forecasting model, fixed weightand variable weight combination forecast model, based on the relevant statistical data ofRuili from2001to2012, fitting analysis was carried out on the predicted values andreal values. The experiment result Indicates that: Accuracy of variable weightcombination forecasting model is superior to all single forecasting model and fixedweight combination forecast model. In the study of the accuracy about variable weightcombination forecast model,compared with three kinds of variable weightingpolynomial function form with p=2,3,4separately, the calculation results show thatwhen p=4,the predictionaccuracy is best, outcomes of fitting historical observations well.In the end, According tothe comprehensive comparison of the predicted resultsandthe correlation of variable weight combination forecast results and stabilityperiodforecast assumptions,variable weight combination forecast results when p=4as Ruili2013-2020stable period freight volume forecastresult.Because of unique geographicallocationof Ruili, In the face of more and more serious security threats to our vessels inthe south China sea caused by the perils,this special geographic location to the freighttransfer from south China sea will play a huge role. In this paper, innovatively useprospect theory, discussed about the freight volume transferred to ruili, analyse andillustrate that Unstable period Ruili freight volume forecast in2013-2020.The result provide the reference for Ruili government on the development of localinternational logistics park planning, has a certain guiding significance.