Mechanism Study On Safety Assessment Of Long-distance Water Transmission Pipeline

Nowadays long-distance water transmission system has been widely applied inour country where the contradiction between supply and demand of water resourcesis becoming increasingly sharp. And it’s playing a remarkable role in the aspect ofeasing the uneven condition in time&space distribution of water resources anddeploying the water resources reasonably. However, on account of the high waterpressure, complex terrain condition, man-made destruction and improper operationreasons, serious pipeline accidents always occur. Not only does it bringinconvenience to people’s life and industrial production, but also cause hugeeconomic losses to our country, and it can even lead to personnel casualties.Therefore, taking safety assessment into long-distance water transmission system,can help to find out the hidden dangers and take effective measures in time. And itis very significant to improve the utilization rate of pipelines and safety of watersupply.After the in-depth analysis on the safety assessment methods of commonlyused, This paper takes risk identification with the method of fault treeanalys is(FTA), and builds a fault tree on the security of long-distance watertransmission system. Based on the calculation of the minimum cut set and thestructural importance, it identifies and analyzes the main influence factors on thesecurity of long-distance water transmission system. And then to build asafety-assessment index system on the long-distance water pipeline.Owing to the weakness of the expert judgment method of strong subjectivityand weak flexibility, improved expert judgment method is brought forward in thispaper. First, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to build a AHP model onevaluating the capability of experts coming from water pipeline field. And the papertakes the lead in applying Yaahp0.5.3hierarchical analysis software inlong-distance water transmission system,which help to establish a judgment matrixand confirm the weights of the experts’ capability. Second, it carries in the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method, and experts’ judgment with fuzzy naturallanguage was quantized treatment with the α cut sets method of fuzzy sets. Then toestablish the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix, and confirm the pipelinefailure probability value through calculation model.Based on the discussion of the main influence factors that affects long-distancewater pipeline failure consequence severity, this paper establish the evaluationcriterion of relative failure consequences index. And with the relevant calculation model is put forward, the relative value of both the pipeline failure consequencesand risk are solved.This paper put the study on safety assessment of long-distance watertransmission pipeline into practice: long-distance water transmission of Mountainreservoir project. This paper select a typicle water pipeling as the assessmentresearch object witch is located in high accident frequency area. Through thecalculation, the result shows that the risk is small but can not be ignored, andaccords with the real pipeline operation. the regular routine inspection is needed.