Study On Traffic State Probability Model Of Artery Under Snow-Ice Conditions

With the development of social economy and urban modernization, unbalancedcontradiction of traffic supply and demand has appeared, the adverse effects ofsnow-ice intensified this contradiction. Traffic rules under snow-ice condition is theresearch focus of traffic theory and practice. This paper has comprehensivelystudied the traffic flow characteristics, traffic index model, traffic state model andits change law under snow-ice condition on artery.This article has firstly analyzed the research results of snow-ice traffic andtraffic flow model, summarized the traffic flow characteristics and traffic statechange law under snow-ice condition, put forward traffic flow state researchframework; secondly, considering the characteristics of snow on the artery, thispaper surveys and evaluates the friction coefficient, this paper establishes thequantitative relation between traffic flow characteristics and friction coefficient byregression analysis; thirdly, according to traffic flow characteristics is under the ofdouble effect of snow-ice and traffic state, cluster analysis applies for traffic flowdata to aggregate classification for different traffic state, demarcates traffic flowspeed ratio-density ratio model of different traffic state; fourthly, according to themapping relation between traffic flow parameters and traffic state, traffic flowrandom caused traffic state uncertainty and the law of traffic state change order,based on the thought of Logistic cumulative probability, this paper establishes thetraffic state probability model under snow-ice condition on artery, and puts forwardthe corresponding parameters calibration method and model evaluation method;finally, using traffic flow survey data under snow-ice condition on Huanghe roadand Hongqi street in Haerbin to analysis and forecast traffic state, put forward trafficstate prewarning index, and combining the analysis results, present thecorresponding traffic management strategy and guidance suggestion.This paper studied traffic state change law on the artery under snow-icecondition, make up for the deficiency of research on snow-ice traffic, improvetraffic flow theories, has important theory significance and the pract ice value for theurban traffic management department to improve the traffic management ability,road utilization balance capacity, traffic congestion management ability and improvecity traffic pressure.