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Research Of Sichuan Province Electric Medium Power Load Forecasting Based On BP-GARCH Model

Posted on:2013-07-30Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y M HanFull Text:PDF
GTID:2252330374464741Subject:Industrial Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Load forecasting is an important part of modern power system engineering, which plays an important role in the power grid construction and power system planning. As the reform of power structures, patterns change, there have been a lot of contradictions between electricity supply and demand. So to improve prediction accuracy can be achieved better balance between supply and demand, reduce waste and improve the economic benefit and social efficiency. But the power load is very complicated and difficult to predict, the impact on forecast factor is multiple, so choosing the right factors and establishing scientific and reasonable forecast model is one of the major problems of economic development and the construction of electric power.In this paper, the author describes the basic situation of economic development in Sichuan province and electricity load status, and analysis the relationship. Then come up with BP-GARCH model, which is an innovative model, introduces the model of data processing and application method and provides the model prediction model of the flow chart. Third, runs on data stationarity test and indexes screening, then uses the indexes to forecast, and comparisons and analysis with other models predict effects. Finally uses the selected indicators and predictive models to predict Sichuan electricity consumption, power supply and the maximum load from2011to2015, analysis the results and gives some suggestions.The forecasting result of this paper indicates that the BP-GARCH model shows a good prediction effect in Sichuan power load forecasting. Electricity consumption of Sichuan province from2011to2015is expected to be divided into two stages, power supply and the maximum load are growing fast. Sichuan province power grid construction and planning should give full consideration to the change of the electric power load.
Keywords/Search Tags:electric power load, medium forecasting, BP-GARCH model, indexscreening
PDF Full Text Request
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