| The low permeability reservoir is more and more in Chinese petroleum rndustry. It hasgreat strategic signiifcance, which can alleviate the pressure of the domestic demand for oilby study of low permeability oilfield production change rule and produced more oil andgas.Recent years, There are many researches on production decline law inlfuence factors, butit is lack of quantitative description, Consideirng these factors, the quantitative mathematicalformula to calculate production decline is established in the paper.Firstly?the paper analyzes the research of production decline rule at home and abrod andthe low permeability water injection development technology； Every oilfield have threestages of developmentr production irsing period、stable peirod and decline peirod, Descirbethe standard of dividing and their features in paper； Secondly? the paper also give theproduction decline theoretical of waterflooding low permeability oil field，its essence isconsistent with the theory of Arps production decline? and analyzes the factors that influencethe production decliner combining with changqing oilfield production data*to determine themathematics relationship between cumulative injection-production ratio，oil production rate，comprehensive water cut, well spacing density and decline rate, respectively. Givenproduction decline rate determination method in different development stage of oilfield；decline period can be directly use regressive analysis method to determine decline rate, instable period，it can predict stable time, and predict initial production decline rate，predictmaximum production and time in the production rising peirod, and then predict stable peirodtime and initial production decline rate； Finally，consider cumulative injection-productionratiot oil production rate, comprehensive water cut, well spacing density and Arps declinemodel，constructs mathematical model of changqing oil field production decline, and tovalidate specific waterflooding block，accuracy is high. |
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