Study On The Effect That The Quantity Of Vehicle Have On Environment

Sustainable development is the inevitable road for the further development of society and circular economy theory is necessary theoretical support of sustainable development. Circular economy and traditional economy is different, it is about the economic activities into a "resources-products-renewable resources", instead of the traditional economic development model of "resources-products-waste ". Based on the idea of circular economy, the paper will study on the project of the effect that the quantity of vehicle have on environment.The development of transportation is the premise and foundation of the social development, recent years, with the progressive development and improvement of urban transport, the quantity of vehicle is also showing a geometric shape growth. Considering Tianjin, it is67.68ten thousand in2005, and by2010, it had broken though150ten thousand. It grew nearly two times in five years. The rapid growth of the quantity of vehicle has caused a lot of pressure to the urban traffic. In this paper, we use the combination forecasting model based on the double exponential smoothing and regression model to predict the quantity of vehicle of Tianjin. The results showed: the quantity of vehicle in Tianjin reached255.68ten thousand in2015, has exceeded the two million mark.In this part of predicting the exhaust emissions, this paper quotes the MOBILE6.2mobile source emissions model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) to calculate the Tianjin motor vehicle integrated emission factor. We performed a sensitivity analysis of CO emission factors influencing factors. The analysis results show that, the different parameters on the emission factors have different influence. According to the local vehicle characteristic of Tianjin, got the localization of simplified input model with collecting the relevant data and revising the model. Finally, using the simplified model predicted Tianjin exhaust emission factors of CO. The results show that:CO emission factor decreased by4.4% relative to2011in2015. This shows that, due to people’s awareness of environmental protection, the quality of the car emissions in single car CO emissions decreased, but due to the rapid rise in total vehicle, calculate results show:Compared with the year of2011, both the total amount of emissions and the daily concentration value of the CO emission factors increase over40%by2015with the increase of the quantity of vehicle. This shows there is inevitable relationship between the air quality and the quantity of vehicle. The continued growth of the quantity of vehicle has caused a certain amount of pressure on the environment. Finally, put forward some suggestions for how to improve the air quality.