| One of the more certain consequences of climate change is a global-mean rise in sea-level. As taking account of the sea level rise, this paper made a development for MRICES-2012that developed by Wang Zhen and Zhang Shuai. Based on the new system named MRICES-S, we calculated the sea level rise and its impact due to climate change. According to the sea level rise calculated before, submerged area in China’s coastal regions was estimated with methods of GIS.This paper explored the trend of climate change and sea-level rise under different emission scenarios. Furthermore, the effects of sea-level rise were evaluated combing with the FUND model. Here emission reduction is an adaptation measures. In addition, the impact of sea level rise is divided into two groups, one has no protection measures and another is under protection measures. Protection measures can also be regarded as adaptive measures. Firstly, based on MRICES-2012model, the world is divided into four categories and six countries, including high-income countries expect United States, European Union, Japan, upper-middle incomes countries expect China, Russia, lower-middle incomes countries expect India, low-income countries. New model contains macroeconomic module, climate feedback module, coordination module and GDP overflow module. Using the carbon cycle model established by Svirezhev (1999) instead the radiation balance of transformation mechanism of Pizer(1999), model simulated the future global carbon emissions, CO2concentration and the change of global warming. With the semi-empirical model and the rise of global mean temperature, we calculate the sea-level rise and then simulated the economic implications and flooding areas to sea-level rise to each country and region under different emission scenarios by FUND. Through the comparative analysis we can evaluate the pros and cons of each solution, so as to provide decision-making reference for policy making.After building model, we collected and processed data involved model. Based on the idea of software engineering and software developing technologies including C#、 SQL Server2008, after the requirement analysis and system design, the integrated assessment system of climate protection is established to explore the trends of climate change for the BAU solutions, Stern scheme, Nordhaus scheme and effective growth scheme. By2100, the study found that in the case of take no measure to reduce emissions, the global average sea-level rise is94.9cm, nearly up to1m. What is more, mitigation measures can effectively control the global CO2concentration and temperature rising, so as to lower the height of sea-level rise. Moreover, protection measures are crucial to response to sea-level rise, because the influence without protective measures is several times as with protection.For the spatial analysis ability of GIS, a small geographic information system of flood analyzing is established by combining ArcGIS Engine10development component library and C#to research the influence to China’s coastal when sea-level rise up to lm by2100. It is both the validation of the model, and also provides another way to study the effect of sea-level rise. |
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