Research On Development And Application Of Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Disaster Risk Assessment Toolset

The rainfall intensity, as well as the number of heavy precipitation events, showed significant increasing trend under the impact of global climate change and urbanization in recent years. The frequency and intensity of rainfall is likely to continue to rise in the future, with the rainfall tends to be more concentrated. Waterlogging disaster will have more significant changes in precipitation frequency and intensity with the increase of the probability of future rainfall. In addition, due to the "Urban Rain Island" effect, more heavy rain and waterlogging event occurs in urban areas. Urban rainstorm waterlogging risk is increasing, and has become one of the major challenges of sustainable development in China and the international community. Although manay scholars has payed attrntion to the research field of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk, but the study methods need to be improved, and the corresponding research tools are more scarce.This article was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NO.71373084), the Innovation Project of Shanghai Education Committee (NO.13ZZ035), Science and Technology Venus Project of Shanghai (NO.09QA1401800) and the Key Scientific Research Projects of ECNU. With the supports, this article constructed a complete urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment method, and developed the Urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment toolset based on the method. What’s more, this article set the urban area of Shanghai as the study area, completed several studies of waterlogging disaster risk by the toolset. The work and results of this study are as follows:1. Based on the summary and improvement of existing disaster risk assessment methods of each part, this article built a complete urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment methods, which includes3aspects:the simulation of disaster hazard, the analysis of vulnerability and the assessment of disaster risk. The design storm method was used to simulate storm senario, in the disaster hazard simulation aspact, used the modified SCS runoff hydrological model to simulate the runoff producing, and used two methods to simulate the convergence of runoff: the locality volume equation method and hydrodynamic model method. In the vulnerability analysis aspect, used the vulnerability curve to calculate the loss rate of the disaster. In the disaster risk assessment aspect, based on the analysis result of disaster hazard and vulnerability, analyzed the lost of disaster and the affected population, used the index system method to analyze the influences of the disaster to complete the urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment and zoning.2. Based on the above urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessment methods, this article used the development tool Microsoft Visual Studio2008combined with ArcEngine9.3Geographic information system development component library, completed the development of urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessment toolset, made the methods of each part in urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment to the research tools, and integrated these tools into a complete toolset.3. Based on the urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessment toolset, this article set the urban area of Shanghai as the study area, completed a number of research on urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessment. Firstly this article used the basic data of2006, set the same storm disaster scenario, used the two simulation methods completed the simulation. The result shows the method of SCS hydrological model combined with hydrodynamic model can make a more close to the real situation of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster process, which has a more reasonable simulation results, so this article selected this method to complete the follow-up toolset application researches.Based on the basic environmental data of2006, this article set five kinds of return peroid scenarios, completed the urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment under the scenarios. The results showed that with the increase of return period, the overall urban rainstorm waterlogging hazard tend to serious, the overall loss rate situation of the study area also tends to increase, the worst affected land use type is road. Considering the analysis result of disaster lost and affected population, the result showed that road type has a larger risk of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster. In the study area, the disater risk showed a distribution of higher disaster risk at center and lower disaster risk at outer, and with the increasing of return period, the overall disater risk tends to increase.To analyze the impact of urbanization on urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk, this article completed the urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk modeling and analysis of several years. The results show that with the increase of year, the overall risk distribution of the study area tends to severe, the spatial distribution of overall loss rate decreased gradually with time, the overall situation of disaster risk is increasing with the years. Combined with the results of urban rainstorm waterlogging hazard, vulnerability and risk, we can find that the affects at all aspects of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster are with an increasing trend with the urbanization prosedure.