Impact Of Hainan Island Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Distribution Characteristics Analysis And Forecast System Design

Tropical cyclone on Hainan meteorological disasters is the largest and most severe tropical weather systems. Tropical cyclone precipitation forecasts are difficult issues at home and abroad, due to tropical cyclone precipitation forecasts are not allowed to cause the passive prepare for typhoon still occur, such as the influence of Hainan on the18th typhoon in1996, because of the emergence of typhoon rainfall forecasting deviation resulting in the passive situation of prepare for typhoon.Hainan is a tropical cyclone-prone area, the tropical cyclone precipitation are both advantages and also harmful to the benefit to increase reservoir storage to increase water resources for the people’s production and living; harm is apt to cause floods. Therefore, the impact of Hainan Island tropical cyclone rainfall characteristics, can provide a theoretical basis of support for tropical cyclone precipitation forecast, the more help to prepare for typhoon.On the basis of in-depth study on the precipitation characteristics of tropical cyclones, the construction impact to the Hainan Island tropical cyclone precipitation distribution characteristics analysis and forecast system (hereinafter referred to as the precipitation forecast system), and on Hainan Island precipitation data in the past40years, statistical analysis, analysis of validation the geographical distribution of characteristics of Hainan Island, precipitation, seasonal distribution characteristics and precipitation level distribution characteristics of tropical cyclone precipitation objective, quantitative forecasting techniques square means, and on this basis, an objective, quantitative forecasting on Hainan Island tropical cyclone precipitationThe system building process, the integrated use of the theory of synoptic climatology, statistics, computer software engineering, data warehouse technology for cleaning and analysis on the accumulated mass of meteorological data, the application of a variety of statistical analysis algorithms, and ultimately establish precipitation forecast model and successfully applied to the forecasting of tropical cyclone rainfall in Hainan.System design and implementation process, using advanced system architecture and deployment architecture design to ensure the accuracy of the system reliability, scalability, and system functional testing and performance testing to ensure quality of deliverables.Meanwhile, in the course of system construction, the full attention of software engineering applications, the CMMI3model using effective project management methodology, using a dual project manager is responsible for system management mode and strict division of the project process, milestones and deliverables process control methods to ensure the orderly and efficient projects, project management, quality controlled to ensure project quality and quantity, on time delivery.The success of the system construction of Hainan Island tropical cyclone precipitation model analysis capabilities to enhance the capacity of Hainan Island tropical cyclone precipitation forecast, has very important significance.