A New Detection Method Of Abrupt Climate Change Process And Its Application

Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) means that the climate system jump from one steady stable to another in a short time, which will lead to the catastrophic destruction. The traditional method to detect the ACC focus on the abrupt change points, rather than the Abrupt Climate Change Process(ACCP). Thus a new concept of the ACCP has been proposed, and the ACC would be considered as an event with a process of its onset, development and extinction.In chapter1, the theory of abrupt change has been introduced and its definition and research has been refereed to. We point the truth which neglected in traditional research and we propose a concept of ACCP.In chapter2, we analysis the method of ACCP in details, and use the Logistic model with characters of the abrupt change, to deduct the quantitative relationship of the parameters which reflect the ACCP. We also propose a method to exact the parameters from the real time series, using the parameters to rebuild the ACCP. In this part, a significant impact of this model on the ACC has also been discussed, in the same time the Method of Detection of the ACCP(MDACCP) has been mentioned too.In chapter3&4, two applications have been mentioned:the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) index and the temperature time series in500hpa field. During the research, the ACCP of the climate system has been rebuilt with the method of MDACCP, and the statistical characteristics of parameters has been shown in ACCP. Besides, some interesting conclusions are followed as:1) the greater the amplitude of the ACCP is, the shorter the persisted time is, the more dangerous the system is,2) the persisted time of the ACCP is discrete,3) the phase diagram of the Start-End shows that there are three basic states of the system,4) in distribution of space, the change happened in low latitudes areas are less than that in high latitudes areas,5) the persisted time of the ACCP happened above the sea is shortened with the background of Globe Warm,6) the unstability of the system is increasing during the ACCP.