A Class Of Skew Probit Model In The Study Of The Relationship Of Air Quality And The Secondary Industry

Nowadays, the environment problem is getting more and more people’s attention. Undoubtedly, the environmental problem has close relation to the development of economy. This paper adopts the data on annual air quality and the second industry in GDP data of29key cities in2009and2010. We set in annual air quality of the city to mark as the dependent variable, namely if the number of days that daily air quality of one year in city reaches the second level at least is more than85%of the full year, the annual air quality situation is1, otherwise0. GDP of the second industry is the independent variable, this paper use Bayesian estimation based on the Skew Probit model of Power Normal distribution to study the relationship between the annual air quality standard and the secondary industry GDP.On the one hand, this paper sets different prior distributions of parameters in the model to select the optimal model;On the other hand, Probit model and Logistic model are also taken into account,we compare the results of above models through DIC criterion, getting the superiority of the Skew Probit model based on Power Normal Distribution.At the same time,the relationship between the various cities of annual air quality situation and secondary industry GDP is acquired.We can forecast annual air quality situation of various cities by using the results of model regression...