Ground Motion Prediction Based On P-wave Of Strong Ground Motion Records

As an effective measure for disaster reduction, earthquake early warningcan acquire the hypocenter parameter and other parameters according to initialinformation of ground motion, predict the ground motion and relevantparameters available for target area ahead of destructive shock, issue alert andstart emergency rescue measures for the potential disaster area timely, reducingcasualties and economic losses. Based on initial information of ground motion，predicting the ground motion is the important work in Earthquake early warningtechnology research. This paper describes the current types of earthquake earlywarning and present development of earthquake early warning system home andabroad, on the premise of meeting the timeliness requirements of earthquakeearly warning, and focuses on based the method of predicting PGA, PGV andseismic intensity based on the initial informationin of P wave in earthquakeearly warning.The main achievements of this study are as follows:(1) Summarizing main approaches of phase identification, proceeding Pwave phase automatic identification using combining methods of average oflong and short time（STA/LTA）and AIC rule, and analyzing phase identificationeffects based on combining methods of average of long and short time（STA/LTA）andAIC rule under five different characteristic function.(2) Testing the strong motion records with hypocentral distance being lowerthan100km, including Wenchuan main shock and after shock, Lushanearthquake and KiK-Net. Overfitting the relationship between parameters (Pa,Pv, Pd, AMmax, CAV, PI) and PGA,also the relationship between parameters(Pa, Pv, Pd, AMmax, CAV, PI) and PGA in case of time window length is1s,2s,3s respectively, and analyzing the overfitting situations of differentdirectional separation records.(3) On the condition that time window length is1s,2s and3s respectively,this paper analyzes the dependence of parameters (Pv, Pd, PI) on instrumentalintensity IS, regressed the relationship of the parameters under thecircumstances hypocentral distance is available or not respectively.