Analysis On Interannual And Interdecadal Variability Of Temperature Over China And Its Simulation

The Interannual climate change refers to the average changes of the months an-d years of meteorological elements in different years.The decadal changes refer to th-e climate change measuring by10years to100years.The interdecadal change is a v-ery important time scale to the Interannual climate change,which can affect longer scale climate change,and has modulate and influence on the interannual scale climate change.Meanlwhile,interannual variability disturbance also have affect on d-ecadal climate change. The decadal climate variability becomes a worldwide eme-rging new topic with people’s improvement and the development of science.The interannual-interdecadal tempreture variability features of the China and s-even climate zones are reasearched in this paper by the data of541observati-on stations across the country during1960to2010using the methods of filt-ering,wavelet analysis,EOF analysis ect. And on this basis, using the model si-mulation results from National Climate Center’s BCC_CSM1.1which partici-pated in the IPCC AR5comparing with observation temperature data, inspecti-n model simulation performance. In addition, correcting the decadal experiment results refer to IPCC AR5decadal experiment error correction method, prelim nary giving the predictive temperature change of china in the future. The ana-lysis results show that:(1) The annual, summer, winter mean temperature of China in1960-2010has obviously rising trend (0.01degrees), the change rate is:0.27℃/10a,0.43℃/10a,0.16℃/10a respectively.The winter warming rate is largest, the su mmer warming range is less than the annual average and winter. The annual, summer and winter average temperature change features of the seven climate zones were obvious difference in northern areas and southern areas which are bounded by the Yangtze river. The temperature of several northern regions1-ike northeast, northwest and north of China increase faster than the southern areas, the temperaturev of Yangtze river region, south of China and southwes areas rising is slower. The temperature feature of Qinghai-tibet plateau is wa-rming significant which is relatively similar as the northern region. The south-west of China where was cooling in previous decades began warming since the90s significantly. In the recent50years, the summer average temperature of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river region was cooling sli-ghtly before the year of2000and warming slowly after2000, the summer te-mperature change range was small in the recent50years(2) The average annual temperatures of China and every climate zones widespread has quasi periodic oscillation of3years in1960-2010expect qing-hai-tibet plateau. This characteristic is more stable and significant in the north-ern areas,especially in southwest and south of China in winter. The summer temperatures of China and every areas existence oscillation period of3years before2000, but less significant then the mean of year and winter. The sum-mer temperature oscillation period of national, qinghai-tibet plateau,southwest and north of China shift for6years after the year of2000.(3) The history experiment and decadal experiment are analog out the inc reasing warm trend that is in accordance with the observation, but both of the model experiments are no more faster than the observation data in trend deg ree. In the interannual time scale, the high forecast skilled areas found in the southwestern part of northwest region, eastern and southwestern China,but un satisfactory in northeast,Inner Mongolia and hainan.The history experiment is more closely to observation than the decadal experiment in the interannual an d interdecadal time scale.(4) The simulation of the mode in the east part of China is better than t he west parts on the spatial distribution. The minimum error areas (less than2℃) are northwast of Inner Mongolia region, southeast of northeast region a nd southeast area and maximum error areas are the border of Tibet and xinjia ng and southwest region (greater than8℃).(5) The simulation of temperature change tendency on10year mean has not improve obviously by error correction, but has greater improvement on an nual mean and greatly reduced the system error of the model (less than0.5℃after bias correction).(6)Relative to the observation data to get the constructive rate, which is0.27℃/10a in the years of1960-2010, the model predict that the average tem perature rising trend is more obvious during the years of2011to2030, and t he changeable rate reach to0.48℃/10a.But the forecast result of the model sh ows that the air temperature of china on2001-2010gowning slower and fluct uating smaller compared with2011-2030.