The Research On Short-term Forecast Of Real Estate Confidence Index

The real estate industry occupies an important position in our national economy. It plays an important role in stimulating domestic demand and realizing urbanization. In addition, it has a long industrial chain to promoting the development of durable goods, building materials and other related industries, and strongly driving economic development. At the same time, real estate industry is closely related to people’s livelihood. Therefore, research is especially important in the development of the real estate market.In recent years, great governmental macro-control of the real estate market has been made, especially since the2011and2012, the implementation of land supply adjustment, the restrictions on purchase and real estate tax policy and so on, the policies was introduced in February2013. These series of measures directly influenced the psychological state of market participants, and affect the development trend of real estate market for a certain period further. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand in the real estate market, considering the market participants’attitude and psychological expectations, this paper established a system of real estate confidence index, and selected the appropriate short-term method to forecast it.First, based on the basic theories, considering the factors affecting the current real estate market, the first part of this paper established the system of real estate confidence index, calculated the value that could describe the character of market, and prepared for future prediction.Secondly, modeling of short-term forecast had been studied based on established real estate confidence index. This paper used unstructured model of vector autoregressive in econometrics and predicted by combining CCI and ECI. In addition, the grey forecasting model was used and compared with VAR model in prediction. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy, combination forecasting was put forward based on the former models. The result showed that, compared with a single method the combination forecasting could improve the prediction accuracy effectively, was better than a single prediction method.Finally, taking Liaoning province2002-2012quarterly data as an example, the real estate confidence index was calculated, short-term forecasted and analyzed by using VAR model, grey forecast and combination forecasting. On the basis of describing the feasibility the real estate confidence index, it also demonstrated the practicability of index prediction model.