The Research On Measurement Of China’s Commercial Bank Real Estate Credit Risk

Since the late1980s, China’s real estate industry after20years of development has made remarkable achievements. Now the real estate industry has become an important pillar industry in the national economy, and is the leading industry of the tertiary industry. In the part of exciting spend to boost domestic demand, raising the level of the Chinese people’s life and providing employment opportunities, real estate industry plays an important role. Real estate industry is typical of capital intensive industry, the industry characteristics of long upstream and downstream industry chain, investment scale, and long capital cycle; determine the real estate industry to require high capital support. In today’s society, however, China’s financial market is not perfect, development of finance market is still not mature, China’s real estate financing heavily depends on commercial Banks, having less choice. Equity, bonds, debt financing funds, trusts and other diversified financing system is still in the infancy. So the credit risk of real estate loans mainly is concentrated on the internal commercial Banks. China’s credit risk management of the commercial bank started very late. In the part of mechanism for approving separation mechanism of management and authorization management system and process management of pre-product, in-product and ex-product, most banks still rely mainly on the analysis of Zeta,5c,5w,5p or financial indicators such as the measurement method of the classical risk,failing to apply modern financial theory and econometric method to credit risk prediction and management of the commercial bank real estate credit risk faced by effectively circumvent. Faced the reality of the real estate industry every link heavily relied on China commercial bank and the management of China’s commercial bank credit risk lagging behind, how to combine the actual situation with introducing international relatively mature and effective credit risk measurement model to strengthen China commercial bank housing loan credit risk management ability, improve the core competitiveness, is the key of the development of China’s banking industry. Therefore this article explains the current international mainstream commercial Banks risk management model, namely, Credit Metrics model researched by JPMorgan, Credit Risk+model researched by Credit’suiss, KMV model researched by KMV Corporation, the CPV model researched by Mekinsey Corporation. A comparison between the four models is made, and the article select CPV model which accords with the situation of China’s commercial Banks to analysis the credit risk of real estate loan in China.The article firstly explain the concept and kinds of credit risk of real estate loans, then make a comparison between the classic credit risk measurement methods and modern credit risk measurement methods. By analyzing the four kinds of modern credit risk measurement methods, the article selects CPV model suitable for China’s macro economic situation to fit and measure the credit risk of China’s commercial bank real estate loan. According to the requirement of the CPV model, four macroeconomic variables are selected to establish econometric model. By the regression analysis, the relationship between four macroeconomic variables real estate credit default rates is obtained. Aiming at the characteristics of China’s real estate industry, China’s commercial Banks personal housing loan credit risk is further analyzed. Finally relevant countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward.