Research On The Mechanism Between China’s Macroeconomic And Real Estate Industry

The mechanism between macroeconomic and real estate industry is conducted by some variables. Explaining the mechanism and variables clearly will be helpful for participants from the market. In the view of micro-level, the housing-buyers could adjust their movement according to macro-economic controlling policies to make a better decision at a better time. In the view of macro-level, the research will be necessary for both national economical planning and industrial development. Meanwhile, it could also provide scientific references for the Authorities to build a healthier transaction environment.This paper firstly sets up a Conceptual Model of China’s macroeconomic and real estate industry. On the basis of the Conceptual Model, it then sets up two VAR models by collecting the quarterly data of China’s macroeconomic and real estate industry. With the adoption of Granger Casualty Test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition, the paper analyzes the mechanism between China’s macroeconomic and real estate industry.The possible conclusions are as follows. The domestic loan plays an important role as a bridge between the two. There is a time lag between macroeconomic and real estate industry which aggregates the complexity of the two. The controlling effects of Monetary Policy to real estate industry are not as good as expected. The fluctuations of housing price and real estate investment are short of the macro-economic’s support. The fluctuation of housing price lacks the support of effective demand. The real estate investment could promote the increasing of GDP immediately, but the effect couldn’t last long. The Monetary Supply is greatly influenced by Financial Market and CPI by itself, whereas the influencing from real estate market is quite small.