The Periodicity And Volatility And Forecast Of Tanker Market

With the continuous advance in trade globalization nowadays, shipping market is playing a more and more important role in the international trade, and the competition in the international trade is becoming more and more fierce. Now the study on the periodicity and volatility of freight rates are mostly for dry bulk market and container market, but little for tanker market; What’s more, tanker market has been fluctuating on a low level since the big depress for shipping market caused by the financial crisis in2008. Shipping operators are paying more and more attention to the yield and the cycle volatility of tankers’freight rates. So it’s very important to study the cycle volatility of tankers’freight rates in international tanker market,predict future changes in tanker market, and offer scientific theoretical foundation and operational decisions combining with different influencing factors for tanker transportation companies. This paper is organized by the following parts:First, a brief analysis is given for the tanker market based on international transportation market, then analyzed global oil production、consumption、trade flow and capacity changes in tanker market. A brief introduction of the emergence、development、 organization and fluctuation reasons of Baltic Sea tanker freight rates is given.Then, Crude Oil Price (COP)、S&P500stock index (SP)、Fleet of Tanker (FT) and fanker Secondhand Prices (TSP) is selected as correlation indexes to study the inter-influent relations with BDTI. Using VAR model and Granger causality test, the paper find that COP、SP and FT are the Granger cause of BDTI.Then, using the HP filter method separates long-term trends and cyclic components of crude oil freight index, the international crude oil prices, S&P500stock index, the tanker fleet, the paper found that crude oil freight index, the international crude oil prices, S&P500volatility of stock index is very similar,besides, crude oil prices and the world economic situation can be leading indicators of crude oil freight index. After that, using spectral analysis measure three cycle of time series by quantitative calculation, the research found that crude oil freight index constituents about1.5years and2.5years periodic component, and, the international crude oil prices and the S&P>00stock index has about about1.5years and3years periodic component. Then the paper introduces the method of dividing cycle, and the cycle of crude oil freight index has been divided.Finally, a summary of freight rates’fluctuation characteristics is given, then gives advices to tanker operation companies, and points out the direction of further study.