The Study On Endurance Of RMB Appreciation About Major Export Industries In China

By the combined effects of the global economic recovery is slow and weak international demand, the prospects for the development of China’s export industry is becoming increasingly grim. In2012, China’s total foreign trade volume of＄2.05trillion, an increase of6.2%in July China’s exports increased by only1%. On the other hand, since the reform of the RMB exchange rate system in2005, the RMB exchange rate issue has been one of the focus of attention of China’s foreign trade field. In June2010, the central bank announced to continue to deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, the RMB exchange rate market-oriented process accelerated again, its impact on China’s export industry has become increasingly prominent. The continued appreciation of the RMB, is intended to improve the structure of China’s foreign trade, accelerate the pace of industrial restructuring in China. However, the excessive appreciation of the RMB level of China’s export industry profit margins will cause severe crush. Therefore, estimates of export industries RMB appreciation capacity, determine the appropriate pace of RMB appreciation, and development of "common but differentiated industry support policies on this basis, China’s foreign trade model transformation, optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has a very important practical by the marginal cost of overseas marketing exchange rate flexibility and product cost plus margin on exports of sensitive joint decision. The same time, the assumption of the industrial structure unchanged and set minimum margin to construct the calculation formula of the appreciation of the RMB endurance, and use it as the basis of China’s coal, iron and steel, textiles, clothing, electronic products, food and cars and other seven major export industries RMB appreciation endurance actual estimates.It turns out that our main export industry there is a big difference in the appreciation of the RMB endurance. Car, the coal industry can withstand more than10%of the appreciation of the RMB, RMB appreciation of the food processing industry to withstand the force in mid-stream level of6%. The clothing and textile industry can only withstand1-3%appreciation of the RMB. In addition, electronic products manufacturing industry is basic does not have the any RMB appreciation endurance, and the steel industry does not have any appreciation of the RMB endurance.Combined with the above findings, the paper argues that our current and keep the RMB appreciation of3%per year more reasonable. Therefore, China’s central bank should adhere to the exchange rate market-oriented reform of the system and maintain a slow appreciation of the RMB exchange rate trend. At the same time, the relevant government departments should increase efforts to promote structural adjustment of China’s textile, clothing, electronics and other export industries, accelerate the process of upgrading these industries to capital-intensive or technology-intensive industries in transition, to enhance value-added products to cope with the current fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate to ensure the sustainable development of the industry. In addition, in the current situation, China’s steel industry should as soon as possible eliminate backward producing capacities, strengthen product development, innovative business models, to significance.To this end, this paper from the following four aspects of RMB appreciation on China’s export industry to withstand force systems research:first, accurate definition of the appreciation of the RMB endurance theoretical connotation; Second, in-depth study of the impact of the appreciation of the RMB endurance major factor in its mode of action; build China’s export industry appreciation of the RMB endurance calculation system; Fourth, the estimates of our main export industry, the appreciation of the RMB’s capacity.Firstly, the China’s RMB exchange reform process and our main export industry, the latest development of the sort. This paper argues that with the market economic system in China to further improve and further enhance China’s comprehensive national strength, will continue to promote market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. On the other hand, from the export situation, the overall situation of China’s export industry is not entirely for the better. In addition to the coal industry, the rest of the country’s major export industry average industry profit margins are at a low level, the steel industry in2012showed an overall loss greater impact on the further appreciation of RMB interested in China’s major export industries.On this basis, this paper continues to focus on the appreciation of the RMB endurance theoretical research. This paper argues that the endurance of RMB appreciation, that is, when the appreciation of the RMB denominated in local currency, so that the price of exports fell to their levels. By constructing the theoretical analysis model, the paper argues that the main factors affecting the industry appreciation of the RMB endurance industry price of the product plus amplitude, exchange rate flexibility in product margins of export prices. Product Price plus amplitude lower the export prices of the higher exchange rate flexibility, the higher the profit margin per unit of product, industry withstand the stronger appreciation of the RMB. The product price plus amplitude determined by the foreign currency price elasticity of demand, the exchange rate elasticity of exports achieve industry-wide restructuring to ensure a smooth development.The content of this article is divided into six parts. The first chapter clarifies the research background and research framework. The second chapter gives a brief review of the relevant aspects of the research results and to further clarify the main contents. The third chapter provides an overview of the RMB exchange rate regime and its fluctuations, and our main export industry, the impact will be described. Chapter four describes the concept of tolerance of RMB appreciation, determinants and estimates by constructing theoretical research model. Chapter combines the above conclusion RMB appreciation on China’s major export industries endurance empirical estimates. Chapter VI corresponding policy recommendations based on the conclusions of this paper.