Analyze The Equilibrium Between Supply And Demand Of Built-up And Associated Land In Maanshan City

The purpose of this paper is to strengthen the research of the equilibrium betweensupply and demand in order to protect land resource sustainable use, and it is theprerequisite and basis to protect economic and social development. As a demonstrationarea of Wanjiang City to undertake industrial transfer, Maanshan City is a pioneer inintegration of Yangtze River Delta. Along with the urbanization process accelerated, thegrading scale of the city, city focus, radiation will be further enhanced, and the carryingcapacity of city will be improved. During the upgrade process, it is necessary to protectand meet the demand of built-up and associated land. Its supply scale, timing, structure andother aspects of design and planning are important too. Do research on equilibriumbetween supply and demand of built-up and associated land in Maanshan City, which toprovide the basis for the Government to plan for next year, to provide land concentrateapproach, and securing space for economic development of land-use.First of all, this article cites the research at home and abroad, and bases on the theory ofsupply and demand. It researches existing forecast methods of land supply and demand. Italso analyses the advantages and disadvantages of various methods. The paper lists ninemajor prediction methods. Secondly, the paper describes the demand connotation forbuilt-up and associated land. It uses the natural growth method, comprehensive growthmethod and exponential smoothing method to forecast the total population in MaanshanCity in2012.It compares the low, medium and high data to get the integrated program, anduses dynamic proportion and time series method to forecast the GDP in2012. It makes useof the Conservative estimate, General estimate, Slants big estimate methods to predict offixed assets investment and economic growth index etc. According the Twelve-Five Planand Government work report, it builds population, economic growth and Fixed AssetsInvestment Increment prediction models to forecast the demand of newly increasedbuilt-up and associated land. It also uses taxonomy method to forecast diverse demand andobtains the comprehensive demand quantity. In addition, it studies the connotation whichincludes annual built-up and associated land supply plan, newly increased one, and stockone. Through calculates the quantity of annual planning supply land, development land,consolidation land, stock land, it analyzes an amendment to the supply of built-up andassociated land with correction factor revision method. It selects region, plot ratio andenvironment as correction factors, uses sensitivity analysis method to determine the factorweight, gets the supply quantity of built-up and associated land in2012.The results show that the built-up and associated land is in short supply obviously; theequilibrium between supply and demand needs to enforce the implementation ofmeasures.And it makes profit and loss analysis between supply and demand of built-up andassociated land. In order to achieve the dynamic equilibrium between supply and demand,it makes suggestions of short supply, including adjusts the amount of built-up andassociated land between rural and urban, replacement land supply, improvement landsupply, and pay the off-site indicator to supply. It also proposes appropriatecountermeasures for equilibrium between supply and demand from now on, includingintensively use of land, make all land use planning as a whole, carry on the policy of built-up and associated land use, open source but intensive use, strengthen supervision andmanagement of land use, innovate financial investment land policies, reform relevantmanagement system etc.It is concluded that the article bases on the principle of economical and intensive use ofland and the urban smart growth theory to analyze the demand of built-up and associatedland. The Maanshan City is found in a state of urban sprawl, so the demand quantityneeded to be revised. Then it analyzes the reason for the growth of newly increasedbuilt-up and associated land. It proposes some effective measures to achieve annual supplyand demand total amount of built-up and associated land of dynamic equilibrium to facethe short supply. Finally, the paper summarizes four main conclusions. Then analyze theshortcomings of the article, including it is difficult to confirm the correction factorscoefficient when using the method of forecast revision etc. Only by using the landappraisal factor correction method for reference and analyzing the special geographicalsituation in Maanshan City to get the correction coefficient. And it predicts further study.