Study Of Financial Forecast For Textile Enterprises N The Basis Of System Dynamics

As one of the traditional industries in our country, the textile industry is faced withmany challenges and problems in the market which is increasingly competitive andfull of complex changes. As a labor-intensive industry, it is likely to face a majorcrisis and may cause an impact on the social stability if the textile company doesn’tcomply with the development of the market, pinpoint its position or predict theproblems in the future.Raw material procurement, production and sales are taken more seriously by themanagers of the textile companies. How to arrange the production and inventory tomeet customer orders, reduce cost and improve the enterprise’s net profit is thedecision that is make by the managers. The production process of the textile industryis a complex, dynamic and nonlinear feedback structure. First, a brief introduction tosystem dynamics modeling process and application tools is given in this article. Andthen, based on the theory of system dynamics, aimed at the characteristics of thetextile industry, this paper builds a model for the procurement, production andmarketing. Through the study of the textile industry production patterns, this articleanalyzes the mutual relations and influence of various factors, excluding the factorswhich affect the production process and profit less, and then draw the causal diagram.By making a division of the production subsystem, receivables and payables one,fixed assets one and the profit one, this paper builds a financial forecasting model.This paper takes HUAFU Top Dyed Melange Yarn Limited Company as an examplesubsequently, and builds a flow graph based on the characteristics of the mode ofoperation and the demand forecast in its corporate annual report. The financialindicators related to production processes are selected to be used in the computersimulation. Compared the simulation value with the actual one of the enterprise, thismodel is feasible for the textile industries’ financial prediction. Through the sensitive test and making the forecast in the next three years, this paper evaluates the currentpolicy of the enterprise.