Based On The Theory Of Option Games M&a Pricing Risk Research

Enterprise merger and acquisition is a common hot topic in industry and economic field recent years. Enterprises can obtain the advantage resources and Technology of the target companies through mergers and acquisitions.Then, it can get strategic synergy effect and enhance its strength, increase the profitability of itself to maximize the interests of shareholders of the target company. But the merger involves many complicated problems and each link has risk. If Merger and acquisition of enterprises can not correct identification and disposal these risk, it will impact the success rate of M&A directly. This article is research on the most concerned about and the most sensitive issues of M&A--buy price problem exists in the risk---the pricing risk research. The paper put the enterprise incur losing which is caused by the not exact price to buy the uncertainty of the results to merger and acquisition pricing risk. The risk is measured by VaR. The acquisition price determination must be on target enterprise value. There are many valuation methods of target company value, such as asset method, cost method, income and cash flow method. The last metord is most used because it taking into account the company’s future profitability. But the target company of the mergers and acquisitions has its particularity so that the methods of assessing the value of target company can produce large errors. This paper use the real option theory aided the discounted cash flow model on the target company value evaluation which considering the appreciation ability of the target company. This appreciation ability is called value-added effect of Merger and acquisition which is basic power of the M&A. But this part of value-added effect benefits created together by the two sides of M&A.Both sides want to gain greater market share. This paper, through the establishment of a negotiation game model to determine the value-added effect resulting from the distribution of income and establishes the final transaction price model of the M&A. At last, the paper establishes mathematical model of the measurement of the main enterprises merging pricing risk (VaR)...