| Three decades of reform and opening up development, china’s economy has made remarkable achievements, The comprehensive national strength has been increased dramatically, And in the Background of global economic integration, Product factors Global flow and Specialization as become a major international economic development, Exchange rate has been more attention in economic development and trade transactions, Maximize efficiency and minimize cost is the best goal of any business, when Foreign trade enterprises face complex and varied international environment, How to achieve minimization cost is a thought provoke question, this paper mainly in Perspective of exchange rate, do some research about the low-cost export-oriented of product. In the Article, firstly used hyperbolic logarithmic model to analysis the relationship of the exchange rate and cost, and obtain the elasticity of export cost to exchange rate is4.467%.It is Show that the exchange rate have big influence to the export cost, and the exchange rate uncertainty changes will cause a greater risk of export cost, then comprehensive analysis the factors which Caused exchange rate changes, And applied the hyperbolic logarithmic model to do some flexibility analysis of the factors to exchange rate, quantitative analysis the impact of factors on exchange rate changes; Because of the economic system is a complex system, single-factor analysis method can only be an approximate estimate analysis. So neural network as a global integrated approach means, As a systematic model well applied in exchange rate forecast, and get a fine predict effect. Accurately predict the trends of exchange rate and change extent, Provided a good premise preparation work for avoid exchange rate risk.Finally, do research on how to avoid exchange rate risk and to analysis strategies methods, Which exchange rate risk in general can be divided into transaction risk and economic risk, So the risk of exchange rate can mainly trade risk and economic risk from two aspects of evasion, But overall say, do some research and analysis by the BP model, then had accurately grasp the development trend of the exchange rate, We can take some measures to reduce or avoid loss caused by the risk of exchange rate. |
