Study On Demand Forecast Of Agricultural Water Resources In Six Provinces Of North China Based On The Gray Model

North China belongs to the serious water resources shortage region.Along with the rapidly economic development, the population growth and the improvement of people’s living quality on water resources demand increasing gradually, the contradiction of water resources between supply and demand is increasingly outstanding.The excess of the mining of groundwater resource in the North China region has caused multiple funnel areas, that serious ecological and environmental problems have appeared. Agriculture in North China is the major water user, to some extent the effective water saving of agriculture can alleviate the crisis of water resource in North China region. The forecasting of Agricultural water demand is the comprehensive utilization of water resources planning that is the base of sustainable development. In order to meet the demand of water resources, the development of a scientific long-term water resources supply and demand plan should be made, the need for scientific water demand forecast should be met.This study uses scenario analysis based on six provinces of North China water resources quantity and each main branch water situation analysis, by the grey model GM (1.1), and separately from the" supply-decided need" and" need-decided supply " two angles on2015agricultural water use forecast. By the two prediction perspective of the balance of supply and demand, from the theory that the2015six provinces in North China Agricultural Water gap has been found. For the whole study,the whole area of North China forecast and forecast from the" supply-decided need" and" need-decided supply " two angles are taken as the two points of innovation.This study found that, there is a notch in Beijing city, Tianjin city. Hebei Province, Shanxi Province four provinces agriculture water in2015. and agriculture water gap of the Hebei province is the biggest.that it is4.62billion m3;the Inner Mongolia and Shandong two provinces after satisfying their agricultural production water need in2015will respectively have surplus11.16billion m3and17.63billion m3.From the whole point of view, the region of North China in2015will have surplus18.45billion m3water for agriculture, but because of the water natural resources regional reasons, these surplus water resources can not alleviate the problem of shortage of water of Beijing city, Tianjin city. Hebei province and Shanxi Province, therefore, the region of North China agricultural water is tense.On the basis of quantitative study, considering each of the inalienable inner link between the domestic water, industrial water, ecological and environmental water and agriculture use water, from open source and reduce expenditure two respects some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to solving the water used tense of the six provinces of North China agricultural.