Decomposition Analysis On Influential Factors On Energy Consumption Intensity In China

The economy in China has been developing rapidly since1978with the implement of the open and reform policy. However, after several decade fast development, China has already become a giant resource country. Energy has become the bottlenecks in restricting China’s economic growth. As to reverse gradually serious tide of energy, relax the contradiction between economic growth and energy and enhance the quality of economic growth, our country has brought out seting a target of reducing energy consumption intensity by20%in an object which is named The Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Reducing energy consumption intensity has gradually become the consensus, which has been proposed to a national strategic level. Reseaching decomption on influential factors on energy consumption intensity is propitious to master energy consumption intensity change mechanism, is propitious to understand contribution of all factors to energy consumption intensity, and is propitious to establish appropriate policy for the successful realization of the energy saving targets.This paper focuses on energy consumption intensity influential factors decomption applying logarithmic mean divisia index and input-output analysis. This paper gets some conclusion which gives assistant to government on establishing policy. The primary research contents and conclusion of this paper are as follows:1. After reviewing internal and overseas research incomes and analyzing the decomption methods of influential factors on energy consumption intensity, this paper introduces pertinent decomption method of influential factors on energy consumption intensity and their research significance.2. After trimming some concepts of energy consumption intensity and energy efficiency, this paper introduces logarithmic mean divisia index and input-output analyis.3. This paper puts forward energy consumption intensity synthesis model based on LMDI, which resolves the problem of alternative item of decomposition analysis. The alternative item is completely decomposed. Because of applying the model, the decomposition result has not deviation between moedl and actual data, and the effect of sub-item and inter-item on total effect is clearly.4.Logarithmic mean divisia index is applied to decompose energy consumption intensity synthesis model. This model analyzes the quantitive relation among sectional energy efficiency change, intermediate demand change, consumption ratio change, investment ratio change and import-export raio change. This model establishes the practical relation between theory analysis on energy consumption intensity and actual economic data such as the input-output table published by stat. department.5.Applying this model, this paper analyzes influential factors change on energy consumption intensity from1997to2005in China, gets pertinent conclusion, and gives policy suggestion.