The Research On Cold Chain Logistics Mode Of Agricultural Products By Demand Forecasting Of Hebei Province

With the development of the social economy and the rhythm of people’ s work and dailylife, the traditional consumption mode have changed to the modern diversity, simplificationhigh-speeding. The requirement of the agricultural products is not only fresh, healthy, safeand nutritional, but also breed diversity, distribution in time rapidly. These all prompt themode of fresh agricultural logistics to experience a great change, and make the cold chainlogistics development rapidly. In recent years, the recognition of the fresh produce inrefrigeration is becoming higher than before which pull the fresh produce consumptionquickly. Fresh produce is not easy to keeping fresh and easy to decay, it has the characteristicsof "alive" which decides it is different from other agricultural products in logisticsorganization and implementation. Now, the cold chain logistics has become an importanttechnology, which improves the fresh agricultural products circulation conditions all over thecountries, ensure the quality of agricultural products, improve the added value of theagricultural products and enhance the competitiveness of international agricultural productmarket.There are many fresh agricultural products in Hebei Province every year, the number ofthe fresh agricultural product is large and wide in variety, however, there are some problemswith the development of fresh agricultural product logistics in Hebei, the time of logistics isvery long, the logistics causes a lot of losses, and the efficiency is very low. Thus manyagricultural products are dull of sale and the added value of those is less. The backwardnessof logistics has already hindered the agricultural development and peasant’s incomeincreasing of Hebei. Therefore, it is important that research the fresh produce demandforecasting, construct high efficiency of the fresh produce logistics development modes toease the contradiction of fresh agricultural logistics between supply and demand, improve thecompetitiveness of agricultural products and increase income of the peasants.This article introduces the background and significance of topics firstly, then introduceand comment on the development of the agricultural products cold chain logistics at home andabroad. Based on this, advances the main contents, research methods and innovations, afterthese, give the definition of cold chain logistics concepts relevant to agricultural products. Next, select the indicators about cold chain demand forecast of agricultural products,then, analyse all kinds of fresh agricultural products in Hebei by the methods of respectivelyexponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing. Last, the appropriate, targeteddevelopment mode of cold-chain logistics should be put forward that according to the resultsof forecast to layout all kinds of fresh agricultural produce. For example, fruit and vegetableswould develop the mode of wholesale market for leading and as the center of agriculturalproducts processing enterprise in the cold chain logistics, poultry and eggs products which issuitable for developing the mode of supermarket cold chain or as the leader as theintermediary organizations、professional cooperation organization in cold chain logisticsmode, meat and aquatic products should develop the mode of orders products and to as thecenter of the third party logistics enterprise in cold chain logistics. There is not clearboundaries in these several patterns, we can mix several cold chain logistics mode with a kindof mode for leading.Finally, according to the mode of the constructive agricultural products cold chainlogistics and the calculation of each kind of fresh produce concentration, we can judge thecold chain logistics demand for agricultural products. Then we would put forward theconcrete measures and suggestions about the transport routes and the other aspects ofagricultural products cold chain logistics, which is accelerating the construction of the coldchain logistics center of agricultural products, making the infrastructure of agriculturallogistics completely, speeding up the policy platform construction of the cold chain logistics,developing the mode of the third party agricultural cold chain logistics and so on.