Positive Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of Sino-Russia Bilateral Trade

With the development of economic globalization, economic ties between globaleconomies have become increasingly closer. China and Russia, as two big developingcountries, have a long history of balateral trade which has always been the focus of manyscholars. With the growth of their economic strength, the trade relationship betweenChina and Russia has been reinforcing, at the same time, both trade volume andcommodity structure of international trade have been improving. Coposition ofinternational trade is converting from labor-intensive to capital-intensive productstogether with growing trade volume. Although China and Russia are strategiccooperation partners, neighbouring countries and both of them are BRIC countries in thetransformation stage, their balateral trade volume is far behind that of Sino-America,Sino-Japan and Sino-South Korea. Theoretically speaking, China and Russia should havebig potential for balateral trade, so what have hindered the process of Sino-Russiabalateral trade, affected the commodity structure of international trade and are there somepositive factors to promote Sino-Russia balateral trade? This paper will make a deepresearch to identify the reasons for the problems.This research is divided into four parts. In part one, relative theories on internationaltrade were introduced, including traditional international trade theorie, new trade theoryand transaction cost theory in new institutional economics. All of them provided theoreticsupport for the trade between China and Russia. Part two described the current situationof international trade between the two countries, in trade development and trade structureperspectives, by using diagram and data comparison which gave a more vivid analysis. Inpart three, variables were selected and econometric models were formulated to makepragmatic analysis of the factors influencing Sino-Russia bilateral trade. Results showedthat both countries’ GDP, tariff and exchange rates and other economic factors are moresignificant influencing factors. On the other hand, because the international strategy,politics and other non-economic factors are hard to quantify, this paper made a normativeanalysis on them. In part four, based on theoretic and pragmatic analyses made before,put forward countermeasures and policies to promote further development ofSino-Russia trade, such as maintaining moderate economic growth, lowering trade barriers, accelorating the process of using ruble and RMB in trade settlement, optimizingcommodity structure of international trade and strengthening communication andeconomic exchange.