| The outbreak of the subprime crisis has exposed the fragility of the banking system and its supervision, which spurs people to rethink policy defects and also contributes to the world’s financial regulatory reform. At present, the macro economic and financial situation of China still exist superior systematic risk. Accordingly, to strengthen the macro-prudential management, to prevent and mitigate systemic risk by means of the implementation of counter-cyclical policy and comprehensive regulation across the industry, have become the focus of financial reform. To do research on early discriminating and assessing the pro-cyclicality of financial system, sending out a risk warning and transforming the results of risk assessment into proper counter-cyclical policies have important theoretical and practical significance. Since the establishment of Basel Supervision Committee, a series of documents have been promulgated. The action forms complete risk management framework, which centers on the bank’s capital adequacy supervision, covers the transnational bank supervision cooperation, risk management in banking and effective bank prudential supervision. These regulatory principles is the global risk supervision experience summary in a period, which reflect the need for risk supervision of financial institutions under the new situation, and the development trend of international risk supervision.This paper conducted the research progress about the financial system, especially about the financial system pro-cyclicality and counter-cyclical regulation policy at home and abroad. Based on the in-depth analysis of the Basel protocol development process, with the aid of the modern theory of financial risk management, this paper summarizes the cause of pro-cyclicality. constructs the dynamic panel data model, explores empirically the cyclical behavior of bank capital buffers and its driving factors in China. Combined with the macro-prudential regulatory framework proposed by Basel Committee, this paper proposed the counter-cyclical policy tool used to alleviate the pro-cyclicality, and the hook variables of counter-cyclical capital buffer. In order to correctly evaluate the risk weighted assets, this paper systematically introduces the dimension of credit risk, market risk and operational risk faced by commercial banks. Based on the historical data of Chinese banks, this paper does some empirical studies on the counter-cyclical capital buffer frame proposed by the Basel Committee, and analyses its applicability in Chinese commercial bank system. It attempts to use season cycle forecasting method to prospectively predict the situation in2013.Finally, combined with the goal of the prudent macroeconomic policy, it put forward related suggestions about the coordination of countercyclical regulation means, and the problems to be further studied in practice. |
