Real Estate Corporate Credit Rating Research Based On Logistic Model

With the coming of21st century, along with the rapid growth of China urbanization rate real estate in China became the focus in our society, entering the golden decade of industry. The real estate has already become a pillar industry of the national economy, making an outstanding contribution to economic development of the whole society.While the real eatate industry developed rapidly, the high interests also lured more and more developers to join in, therefore, competition in the industry got increasingly fierce. At the same time, various kinds of questions were gradually exposed because of the lack of scientific planning. With the rapid expansion of real estate industry, credit risk of Enterprises was revealed, and it is also cumulative, once broke out, it will quickly cause large financial storm, possibly cause great loss to social asset as well.In the above context, credit risk rating of the real estate industry became an important subject, which worth a deep analysis, it is the requirement for real eatate industry and banks to develop healthily and stably, has the realistic significance to build the modern real estate enterprise management mechanisms and improve the management level, also making a significance to the development of the whole national economy and finacial industry.Under such a background, this paper discussed the company credit risk rating in theroy, and also maked an empirical study on it. Firstly, the paper reviewed the related theoretical basis as well as most important research of experts and scholars, according to Moody’s research and analysis,this paper summarized the main factors of real estate coporate credit rating, and ultimately determined the required indicators of this paper. Secondly, by using the Factor analysis method, this paper built a set of financial credit evaluation index system of enterprises in real estate. Then the paper used logistic regression model to built the enterprise financial credit evaluation model, whose results showed that the overall discrimination accuracy rate of the corporate financial credit up to96.2%, fitting good effect, having a certain guiding significance. Then, the paper maked additional qualitative study on the basic of Analytic Hierarchy Process, treated the common factors from Factor analysis as the first-class indices, after determined the second-class indices,we got the indice weight by Analytic Hierarchy Process software, multiplied by the score of each indice, then summed to produce a composite weighted factor score, according to this, figured out the company ranking, knowing more about the credit status of the company. This result was compared with the effect of logistic regression analysis, making the study much more comprehensive, by the contrast, we can see that Logistic regression model has much more advantage on credit rating.