| The allocate efficiency of national production factors have been grown up sustainably since China began its economic reform and openness policy from1970s. Consequently, improved marginal productivity of production factors and total factor productivity, as well as the increased production inputs, constitute the primary source of Chinese economic growth. However, the development on marginal productivity of production factors and total factor productivity have been being in decline while national economic scale have been enlarged and marketization reform have been deepen gradually. Furthermore, the contradiction between national economic growth and ecological carrying capacity tend to be more and more outstanding which leads to the ordeal of sustainability on economic growth. Hence, the only way to achieve sustainable economic growth steadily and rapidly is via altering the pattern of China’s economic growth.Actually, altering the pattern of Chinese economic growth has been transferred as an issue of government strategic policy, from the suggestion by academic circle originally several years ago. Based on the dominant academic view in China, there are both achievement and shortage existed in the development of domestic changes in the pattern of China’s economic growth. Therefore, it becomes a unavoidable problem that how to critically assess the practical performance of relevant political measures in order to provide the accurate criterion for the follow-up policy formulation and implementation related to boost changes in the pattern of China’s economic growth. So far, there are a number of studies on the assessment about such issue through the linear method, which has its apparent inappropriateness for utilizing.To overcome the limitation of linear method, the researcher takes advantage of a modified STR model to detect and describe the path of changing the pattern of national economic growth, which is embodies as the growth rate of total factor productivity and time-variation of output elasticity referred to each production factor. Meanwhile, neural network model is adopted to simulate the decision mechanism on altering the pattern of China’s economic growth. Based on the research, several discoveries have been revealed:1. The assessment on the transformation(1) there have been significant changes in the pattern of China’s economic growth since1953, which has mainly been fueled by the increases in production factors;(2) every production factor except capital has generated increasing marginal product, which indicates continuous efficiency improvement in the allocation of corresponding production factor;(3) the diminishing marginal product of capital implies the excessive use of capital;(4) the opening-up reform and market-oriented reform have enhanced the sustainability of China’s economic growth. And finally, we revealed some underlying factors which are inferred to have promoted the changes in the pattern of China’s economic growth and made some relevant suggestions.2. Indication on motive of the transformation(1) The negative change in output is resulted in the increase on the percentage of fixed capital, the storage of foreign capital, final consumption rate, tax, and administrative expense in the GDP.(2) The positive change in output is resulted in the increase on the percentage of technology stock, second industry, third industry, and non-state owned economy, ratio of dependence on foreign trade, urbanization rate, as well as average educational level and financial expenditure in the GDP.(3) Different factors influencing the transformation on patterns of economic growth affect the output variously. When such factors increase10%based on the existing, the biggest change in the output is caused by the occupation of technology stock; secondary is the proportion of average educational level in the GDP while the smallest change is by the proportion of administrative expense in the GDP.At last, this paper provides a series of pertinent suggestions depended on the research above. |
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