Research On The Macro Chaos Of Fictitious Economy

The issue about fictitious economy is an original proposition proposed by Chineseeconomists when they research the Marxist principle, but up to now the study offictitious economy still gets no unified conclusion. As a major revolution of the naturalscience, chaos theory has not only inspired some research in social-science area, but alsobeen applied in economic and financial field. As a value-added system, the fictitiouseconomy has the basic characteristics of macro-chaos.The macro-chaos of fictitious economy is studied in this paper. According to thevalue represented by "paper copy", capitalization pricing, to sell for the purpose ofbuying, and price volatility, fictitious economy includes four branch areas, namelycurrency, basic securities and derivatives, real estate and the collection, gaming (lotteryeconomy in China). Accompanied by its dynamic evolution process, the macro-chaos offictitious economy produced and developed. The modern fictitious economic featuresalso can be summed up in macro-chaos. First and foremost, a chaotic fictitious economyshould be a dissipative system, and bear the characteristic of fractal. Hence, the relatedempirical test for some typical variables of its financial sub-system can prove of themacro-chaos of fictitious economy, and get the internal differences in levels as well. Forthe series of US Dollar Index (USDX), Standard&Poor’s Case-Shiller Home PriceIndices (CSI), the share price of Exxon Mobil (XOM) and their first order differencesequences, the statistical test and stationary test are done firstly, the non-integerCorrelation dimension and the positive maximum Lyapunov exponent are verifiedsecondly, then the chaos attractor in stock chart is observed, finally the econometricmodel is established. This process from disorder to order, in which the certainty isgradually clear, examines the macro-chaos of fictitious economic via multi-dimension. Inessence, the macro-chaos is the macroscopic showing of fictitious economy which is asan institutional system. It has both positive and negative effect, but the break of financialbubbles and periodic outbreaks of the crisis are inevitable. The essence of fictitiouseconomy with macro chaos, its effect and the extreme state all root in the socialization,that is the widening and deepening of socialization of production, as well as the irrational behavior of micro investors. Based on all these analyses on macro-chaos of maturefictitious economy, to develop Chinese fictitious economy should adapt to therequirement of socialization, pay attention to the coordination of different sub-systemsand create chaos if necessary. What’s more, a new kind of thinking to regulate capital andprevent risk in terms of dissipative system is needed to prompt positive interactionbetween fictitious economy and real economy. In addition, to foster chaotic attractor andpromote research on chaos forecasts could also improve the development of fictitiouseconomy through leading the micro individuals to invest rationally.