| The credit market is the main channel of corporate financing in China. The credit policy is used to adjust the industrial structure and has became the most important means of restructuring China’s economy and promoting economic growth. However, the investments of various industries have different sensitivity to the unified credit policy. Only if these different reactions are studied profoundly, can we avoid the structural imbalance of the credit policy.This thesis is based on the theory of the credit channel of monetary policy, which assumed the information is imperfect in the credit market, and explained the asymmetric effect of monetary policy. The empirical research includes the VAR model and impulse response analysis and aimed to check the existence, validity and importance of the credit channel. The result implies that the credit channel is still the main way for China’s monetary policy transmission after the direct credit constrain is abandoned in1998. It’s obviously more effective than other monetary channels.The further empirical research measures the different reactions of the thirty-nine industries to the same credit shock. There are four categories of industries classified by different investment effect and output effect. The first group has both strong effects like transitional light manufacturing industry. The second group has weak investment effect but strong output effect, including chemical industry and electronic equipment manufacturing. The third is opposite to the second, which include agricultural products and food processing industries. The last group has both weak effect and is not sensitive to the credit shock compared to the other industries. This type of industries is mining and general equipment manufacturing,The credit policy plays an important role in the macro regulation and industrial restructuring. The central bank should seriously consider each industry’s sensitivities to the credit channel when making monetary policies. |
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