Study On The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Eco-environment Quality Of Gansu Province

The relationship between environment and economy system is oneof the hot spots of academic researches, which mainly focus on the theoryand empirical study on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The EKCbased on eco-environmental quality was proposed in this thesis.According to the statistical data of Gansu province, environmenteconometric models and time series analysis were carried out based onboth of the classical statistics and Bayesian statistics respectively, whichaimed to widen the empirical study methodology of EKC, and whoseresults would provide some reference value for environment andeconomy policy making of Gansu province.Based on the theory of ecological environment, and the principles ofscientificity, metrizability and maneuverability, we established thecomprehensive evaluation system of eco-environmental quality of GansuProvince using statistical comprehensive evaluation methods. The systemincludes the target layer, which was aimed at evaluating theeco-environmental quality of Gansu province, and the element layer thatcomposed of the climate, water environment, the vegetation, soil andpollution load. Then we selected the related data from1980-2010, andrespectively, calculated the eco-environmental quality index and principlecomponent score of each year in objective and subjective empoweringways, in addition, systematically analyzed the dynamic path of their evaluation for each element and the developing trend of the generaleco-environmental quality index. It was suggested that the vegetationenvironment has shown some improvement in recent years, thedeteriorating trend was easing, but the other elements tended to make theadverse effects on the eco-environment. The trend for the wholeeco-environmental quality of Gansu province showed the character ofquadratic equation, which means that the eco-environmental quality ofGansu province has decreased dramatically first but gradually dropped tothe lowest level, but improved slightly in recent years.This thesis did necessary theoretical analysis of the interactionbetween the economic system and the environmental system, the EKCbased on the eco-environmental (e-EKC) was proposed. Then,respectively, the environment econometric models were built from theperspectives of classical statistics and Bayesian statistics by replacing theenvironmental pressure indicators wildly used in academic circles withthe comprehensive environmental index. Both of their statistical resultsshowed good estimation performance. The turning point of the extensiveEKC (e-EKC) is lower than the traditional EKC.The time series analysis from both of the perspectives was carriedout, which concluded with similar results that there were long-termequilibrium relationship between the systems of environment andeconomy. In the other words, the econometric model mentioned above was not ‘spurious regression’, and the extensive EKC existed. Economyvariable Granger coursed environmental deterioration, but not vice versa.In addition, the mode of action of environment and economy systemswere executed on the basis of both methods, which represented by VARand BVAR. Since BVAR regard parameters as stochastic variables andprior information (Minnesota prior distribution) was introduced, whichconsequently had a higher prediction accuracy.