| The Reform and opening up of China brought Beijing unprecedented opportunities fordevelopment, with an average annual economic growth rate of16.7%. But behind thetremendous achievements, the average annual energy increase rate up to4.26%, such ahigh energy growth rate makes Beijing heavily depended on external energy supply.Therefore, the study on the intrinsic link between energy consumption of Beijing and itsinfluencing factors provide a scientific basis for the formulation of Beijing’s energy policyand long-term energy planning.This paper applied the cointegration and Granger causality theory to study thelong-run equilibrium relationship between energy consumption and economic growth ofBeijing in1980-2010. The results indicated there was no long-term equilibrium and alsothe Granger causality relationship between them. After the H-P filtering analysis, theresults showed that the cointegration relationship between Beijing’s energy consumptionand economic growth is affected by the common fluctuations of them. We confirmed thefactors that affected energy consumption in accordance with the theory of consumptiondemand, and studied the cointegration relationship between these factors and energyconsumption. These systematical and qualitative analysis provide actual data support forthe model establishment of energy consumption and its influencing factors.At last, the paper established a VAR model based on energy consumption and otherinfluencing factors, such as GDP, energy intensity and urbanization, and used Johansencointegration test to study the long-run equilibrium relationship among them, then throughits variance decomposition method to examine the contribution of changes of each factoron Beijing’s energy consumption changes. The repulse respond function roundly reflecteddynamic effect of GDP, energy intensity and urbanization on energy consumption. Theseresults play a guiding role in implementation of energy policy and energy planning. |
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