Based On Oil And Gas Price Rationalization Of Natural Gas Price Adjustment

This paper first systematically analysed on the limitations of the current pricing mechanism of natural gas, and then analyzed the trends and rationality of the exchange rate relationship of the domestic and foreign natural gas and crude oil, then in the background of that oil has reached international standards, usded regression method to calculate the exchange rate coefficient that the domestic natural gas prices were with the standards of foreign natural gas prices, and according to that the development and reform commission expected a5%-8%Increase of the amplitude for gas prices per year later on, adding the year expected standards, so as to determine the raised extent in this interval of the annual general price of our country’s natural gas. Again according to the general extent of rises and agree to the results predicted by model of the residerts and industry natural gas consumption per year in the future as the weight of adjusting prices to calculate the rise amplitude of industrial gas prices and residents gas prices per year later on, obtained the following specific results:(1) On systematically analysing on the limitations of the current pricing mechanism of natural gas, we understood the basic features of pricing mechanism in the monopoly market, competition market and the basic principles and basic methods of the current gas pricing mechanism, emphasised revealing the current gas pricing mechanism of several major limitations.(2) Through the analysis and rationality of the exchange rate trend of the domestic and international oil and gas, pointed out that the exchange rate movements of the domestic and international oil and gas were with the posture of the linkage. Putting forward that in the background of that crude oil prices have reached international market standards, China’s natural gas prices should reach international market standards soon, in order to maintain a reasonable relations linkage between prices of domestic and foreign.(3) By means of the regression method, with the coefficient of the linkage between domestic crude oil prices and international crude oil prices, established the standards coefficient between domestic natural gas prices and the international natural gas prices. Adding the expected standards year, thereby determined the raised extent in the interval of5%■8%of the annual general price of our country’s natural gas.(4) Mainly through the gray theory model and double exponential smoothing model, dynamic sequence trend model3kinds of forecast method forecasting the demand for natural gas used in industry and demand for natural gas used in civil later on in2011-2020years, thereby determined the adjusting weight of the future natural gas prices. (5) According to the newly-built readjust prices formula, agreed to the forecasted demand as the weight, determined the rise amplitude of industrial use gas prices and residents use gas prices in our country per year later on in2011-2020years.