The Research Of Inflation Uncertainty To Fixed Investment Effect

Inflation uncertainty will lead to signals disorder of the whole economy system and reduce the efficiency of resource allocation,thereby intensify macroeconomicfluctuation and further become the new incentive of inflation or deflation.For thesereasons,the economic theory generally takes the uncertainty as the real crux of theinflation dangers. China inflation uncertainty is less, mainly concentrated in the study of inflation and inflation uncertainty relationship. In this paper, the econometric model to study the relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation, and further research on the impact of inflation uncertainty on fixed investment, main contents and conclusions are as follows:First, select the2002-2011national and Sichuan Province, the monthly CPI data to calculate the ring than the inflation rate, Garch class model to quantify the inflation uncertainty. Found in Sichuan Province inflation uncertainty and the national inflation uncertainty there are similar fluctuations in Sichuan Province inflation uncertainty fluctuations become more intense.Second, verify that the Friedman-Ball hypothesis established in our country. The study found that the country’s inflation rate and inflation uncertainty exists between the Friedman-Ball hypothesis, Sichuan Province, there are not only the Friedman-Ball hypothesis, and the Cukierman-Meltzer, has also been verified.Third, Select2009-2011years of monthly fixed investment data.the VAR model, the impulse response function and variance decomposition obtained:the country’s inflation uncertainty has a positive effect on the national fixed investment and fixed investment in Sichuan Province, Sichuan Province, inflation uncertainty and Sichuan fixedinvestment are positively correlated; the country’s inflation uncertainty greater impact on fixed investment in Sichuan Province; overall inflation uncertainty on fixed investment impact smaller.Compared with the existing research, the main contribution of this paper are: 1. According to the analysis of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity, the impact is high inflation caused by high inflation uncertainty as an Interme-diary,inflation higher during the data in the data selection, and confirmed the high inflationwill bring high inflation uncertainty.2.comparative study of national inflation uncertainty and the Sichuan Province of inflation uncertainty on fixed investment in Sichuan Province.