Research On The Rmb Real Exchange Rate Changes On The Effect Of The China-asean Trade

The signing of the ASEAN Charter and the establishment of the CAFTA’s conducive to the development of friendly relations and economic trade exchanges between China and ASEAN member states, economic and trade between China and ASEAN member states have become increasingly active as evidenced by. ASEAN has become China’s fourth largest trading partner. In the current global trend of economic integration has become increasingly clear backdrop, China-ASEAN regional economic integration has become a hot issue, especially on the China-ASEAN trade integration in development, which is the focus of academia and government departments. Regional exchange rate changes affect trade between Member States in the inter-regional dependence, thereby affecting the development of regional trade integration. Since the2008financial crisis, in order to avoid the adverse effects of fluctuations of the U.S. dollar, the ASEAN countries in bilateral trade with China more choices be settled in RMB. Thus, the RMB exchange rate changes on the future of China-ASEAN trade will contribute to the development of the China-ASEAN regional trade integration, thus contributing to the development of the China-ASEAN regional economic integration, but also for the RMB regionalization and even internationalthe process of installing a new accelerator.To this end, based on the theoretical support, this paper will be the optimal export pricing models and industry export pricing model built on the basis of trying to build a theoretical model of exchange rate changes on the China-ASEAN trade effects. On this basis, further empirical analysis to detect lateral changes in the level of the RMB exchange rate and the vertical volatility of China-ASEAN trade. The results show that, in addition to Indonesia and Myanmar, Real Exchange Rate of China-ASEAN trade effects in line with the "J-curve effect". In addition to Indonesia、Laos and Philippines, the longitudinal fluctuations of the RMB real exchange rate in the short term will help to improve the foreign trade balance of the China and the rest of seven courtries in ASEAN, and have little effect in the long term. Based on this, combined with the current development of the China-ASEAN trade, measures recommended of China-ASEAN trade development under the conditions of the Real Exchange Rate.