The Study And Empirical Analysis On The Relationship Between Hainan Provincial Electric Power And Its Economy

Stationary Test, Co-integration Test, Granger Causality Test, E-G two steps theory andError Correction Model (ECM) are implemented in this paper to study the relationshipbetween electricity consumption and its economic developments in Hainan from1988to2009, electricity consumption of three major industries and their economic developments inHainan from1990to2009, and the relationship between GDP, the primary and tertiaryindustrial electric consumption from1990to2009.By Eviews6.0and Spss17.0, long-termequilibrium models and ECMs from the above are established; Especially, the residualautocorrelation of ECM is solved in the first research object; the ECM of three variables isestablished in the third research object, short-term predictions of the three object are alsodescribed for2010. The results are showed below:1、We can do a conclusion that there is a positive correlation between electricityconsumption and its economic developments in Hainan from1988to2009,for every1percent increase in electric consumption, the economic developments would be increased0.88percent,while every1percent increase in the economic developments, the electricconsumption would be raised1.11percents, in long-term equilibrium model related tofirst-order ECM; for every1percent increase in electric consumption, the economicdevelopments would be on the growth of0.87percent,while every1percent is increased inthe economic developments, the electric consumption would be increased1.15percents, inlong-term equilibrium model related to multi-stage ECM.2、Electric consumption of the Hainanese primary industry is the granger cause of primaryindustry’s economy(GDP) in1990-2009;for every1percent increase in electric consumption,the economic developments on the growth of0.0245percent; And the Hainanese tertiaryindustry’s GDP is the granger cause of its electric consumption, for every1percent increasein economic developments, the electric consumption on the growth of1.002percent;3、There is a co-integration relationship between the Hainanese primary and tertiaryindustry’s electric consumption, GDP from1990to2009. Based on the unchanging condition,for every1percent increase in primary industry’s electric consumption, the economy(GDP)would be on the growth of0.3915percent; Also similar to the tertiary industry, for every1 percent increase in tertiary industries ‘electric consumption, the economy(GDP) would be onthe growth of0.3668percent.