The Research Of Chemical Listed Company’s Financial Crisis Prediction In China

This paper based on the study on early warning of financial crisistheory and method, first of all, the author has analyzed and explained onthe early warning of financial crisis theory and model which containdomestic and abroad, and it is also evaluated on the basis of the researchcombined with the actual situation in china. Second, Based on the relatedliterature studies combined with chemical industry of our country in theannual report of listed companies financial data, establishing the PESTmodel and the Logistic regression model. Finally, using the financial dataof Chinese Listed Companies in chemical, we begin to analyze both ontheory and empirical, in order to come to the classification results abouthealth and crisis company and test the accuracy of the model. Throughthese processes, we can conclude avoidance measures about chemicallisted companies on the financial crisis and make a final conclusion.In this paper, through the screen of the A-share listed companies, weremove the empirical sample of221of the company’s annual report databetween2009and2011writing this article. First of all, we need to findhigh correlation of the business seven main factors by factor analysis to reduce the dimensionality from the financial ratios of selected samples.Using logistic regression model to forecast and checkout listed enterprisecrisis. Second, analyzing and explaining the external environment oflisted companies with PEST theoretical analysis model. Finally, we canreach a conclusion that how to avoid the risk of corporate. Final empiricalresults show that the logistic regression analysis has had a good effect onthe company’s financial crisis early-warning. Combined theoretical andempirical analysis, the logistic regression analysis has reached a goodprediction, which contribute to investors to make rational investmentdecisions, enhance the awareness of risk management and improvedecision makers to extend their decision making level.