The Real Estate Price Trend Analysis In The Dual Role Of Govenment Intervention And Inflation

Since the reform and openning up, the real estate industry of our country has grown rapidly, particularly, after cancelling the devote welfare system in1998, with the national encouraged policy, the real estate industry developed rapidly, and with the growing market, it gradually become pillar industry of the national economy. The development of the real estate industry improved the residents’housing conditions and boosted the economic development,it made great contribution to the economic development of our country But at the same time, the real estate boom also caused the house prices rise quickly, allowing large Numbers of ordinary people can’t afford for the house, and led to other many related social problems.According to the condition of the high housing prices, China’s central government introduced a series Macroeconomic regulation and control policy of the real estate, in order to restrain the rising rapidly real estate prices. At the same time because of the imbalance between financial and power of local government after the reform of Tax-sharing system and the influence of the profit, the execution of policy that aimed at curbing the housing prices was hampered.and the entire macroscopic economy has entered a new round of inflation cycles,,it will also affect on house prices no doubtly. under the environment of is in the above government intervention and inflation the influence this article analyzes the trendencyof the real estate prices in the future.This paper is divided into eight chapters. In the first chapter, first,it analyzed the research background of the topics, second,it explained the meanings of the topic in two aspects of the reality and theory. Finally,it introduced simply the research method and the innovation points. The second chapter was reviewed the related studies of literature.It includs the study of the influence factors of the real estate prices, the government’s intervention on the real estate prices and the relationship between inflation and property prices.The third chapter briefly summarized the theoretical basis that the research needs.It includs real estate prices theory, market failure theory, the game theory and the theory of inflation. The fourth chapter analyzes the policy approach of the government intervention in the real estate price. The policy which mainly contained the land policy, financial policy, tax policy and affordable housing policy, and analyzed the mechanism and efficiency that these policies effect on the real estate price. The fifth chapter discusses the role of the local government to the real estate prices. It analyzes the local governments’motivation in the real estate price and points out that the local government act will promote the rise in house prices because of the unreasonable system arrangement and the influence of profit, The sixth chapter discusses influence that the inflation act to the real estate price. First,it shows the conditions of China’s current inflation, and then analyse the influence of the inflation to the real estate prices Chapter7is an important part of this paper, theis part is the empirical analysis of the researching contents, it detaily analyzes the influence of the central government, local government and inflation to the real estate price by establishing the empirical analysis model, and forecasts trendency of the house price in2011-2020. Chapter8is the part of the policy Suggestions. It proposes the suggestions that can restrain the housing prices from three aspects of the central government, local government and consumer.