The Study Of Clue Influence On Decision

Decision is an important part of thinking activities and essential behaviors in daily life. Many factors involve in decision, such as cognition, emotion, motivation, optional information and external factors, like decision environment, clue information. So researchers found a lot of irrational phenomenon in decision. At present, there are less researches focus on decision environment other than characteristic of internal factors. The research systematically probed into whether decision be influence by clues and effectiveness of clues.The research employ two choice task. In the task, there are two decks of cards with a single number respectively. Subjects should make a choice between two decks of cards. After choice, the information of win or loss will be inform subjects. The study contains two experiments. Experiment1present two cards in reverse side with "1" number. After choice, feedback information presents. Experiment conditions contain three conditions of non-clue, low-effective clue and high-effective clue. Effectiveness of clues be inform beforehand. The research study the different effects in three conditions in obscure decision environment. Experiment2present two cards in right side with1or9number. After choice, feedback information presents. Experiment conditions the same as experiment1. Research study the different effects under three conditions in risk decision environment. There are33subjects in two experiments respectively. Experimentl takes effectiveness of clue and directing of arrow as independem factors, namely two factors(3×2) within subjects design. Experiment2add risk value to independent factors, namely three factors(3X2X2) within subjects design. Results show:Firstly, decision makers have steady attitude towards clue after the effectiveness of clue be informed, seldom being affect by negative feedback;Secondly, decision makers tend to overestimate the effectiveness of clue, especially low-effective clue;Thirdly, there are different attitudes towards low-effective clue and high-effective clue in high risk decision contrary to low risk decision. Subjects tend to overestimate high-effective clue but avoid risk-taking on low-effective clue condition.