The Application Of The Projection Pursuit Model In The Comprehensive Evaluation Of The Level Of "Four Modernization"

The tenth plenary session of the ninth of Hunan provincial committee putforward that we should comprehensively push forward the construction of the "fourmodernization and two types". In this paper，"four modernization" include new-typeindustrialization、agricultural modernization、new urbanization and information. In therapid development of today, the development of "four modernization" level ofdifferent provinces are not consistent. As a populous country，it is a difficult task toimproved people’s living standards and enhance the "four modernization" level ofpeople. In order to better promote the process of "four modernization", we must havean accurate assessment of the country’s "four modernization" level.The paper let the31provinces as the research object, base on the literaturereview, according to the basic principle of constructing index system, build theevaluation index system of the "four modernization" from new-type industrialization、agricultural modernization、new urbanization and information, use the relevant data,build the projection pursuit model; conduct empirical analysis on the results of theevaluation and get the corresponding conclusion. The paper mainly includes thefollowing several aspects:1. Review the related documents of evaluation index system、comprehensiveevaluation method of "four modernization" and the projection pursuit method, existedresearch achievements are reviewed and further research is directed as well; accordingto the related literature、copyright and conference report, overview the connotation ofnew-type industrialization、 agricultural modernization、 new urbanization andinformation, summary the basic characteristics of the four modernization.2. Based on the connotation of "four modernization"、basic characteristics andthe basic principle of constructing index system, build the evaluation index system.The system include forty basic indicators，nineteen second level indexes，mainly infour areas: new-type industrialization、agricultural modernization、new urbanizationand information.3. According to the related theory of projection pursuit method, build theprojection pursuit model base on genetic algorithms, conduct horizontal comparisonon the "four modernization" of31provinces of our country in the year2010andlongitudinal data analysis on the "four modernization" level from year2006to year 2010, conduct the cluster analysis on the "four modernization" level base on theprocess of the cluster analysis. conduct empirical analysis on the results of theevaluation, and put forward the corresponding countermeasure proposal for the lowlevel area of "four modernization" and first level indicator, get the correspondingconclusion:(1) the development of "four modernization" and the first level indicatorare unbalanced in our country, have relation with the level of economic development、policy preferences and geographical location;(2) both the level of "fourmodernization"、 new-type industrialization、 agricultural modernization、 newurbanization and information of all areas of our country have different degrees of thegrowth from the year2006to the year2010;(3) the results from cluster analysis arebasically the same as the projection pursuit, can put the similar areas of the structureof "four modernization" level to group and have obvious regional difference.