| In recent years, with China’s steady economic growth, people have enjoyed material abundance. On the one hand, house prices have been rising strongly for years; domestic property industry becomes a target of public criticism. High house price increases the cost of living; intensifies the income assignment unfair condition and raises the cost of doing business of many industries. People suffer from the high housing price. On the other hand, made in China becomes synonymous with cheap, low value-added and imitations. Facing the common people reflected that the intense high house price, the government appears a series to regulate the measure one after another. Adjustments of the world economy and upgrading of China’s domestic consumption structure require us to optimize and upgrade our industrial mix.Most scholars make studies of the link between real estate industry and industrial structure indirectly rather than directly. Some scholars consider that the rapid development of China’s real estate industry can stimulate domestic investment and promote economic growth. Some scholars consider that due to its advantage of strong relevance with other industries, real estate industry can ceaselessly promote the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industry. Some other scholars consider that the strong development of real estate industry could crowd out investment and consumption. What is the relationship between real estate industry and industrial structure?Firstly, the paper derives that high house price can crowd out investment. Then the paper adopts several indexes which can measure house price in dimensionless treatment to analyze the property market of30provinces or cities from1994to2010. The next, the paper analyzed the relationship between real estate industry and industrial structure quantitatively. The main conclusion is that the positive effect of real estate industry to industrial structure is not significant. High house price begin to bring about negative effects for industrial structure. Thirdly, the central bank has raised interest rates for9times from2004, but house price does not seem to be curbed. Granger causality test showed that interest rate is not granger-cause fluctuations in house price. Finally with the rise of the consumer price, this does mean inflation in China. To understand the relationship between inflation and house price is the basis for government to control housing prices. And granger causality test showed that inflation is granger-cause fluctuations in house price. |
PDF Full Text Request