Study On The Commercial Bank’s Dynamic Dial Reserve

After the global financial crisis caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the risks to which banking faces also present different characteristics, so strengthening commercial bank risk management and control ability becomes a major way in order to deepen reform, improve the ability of sustainable development, and it is also an urgent need of strengthening macroeconomic stable operation through the development and perfection of the financial sector. To extract commercial bank reserve dial is the need derived from banks’ risk management and control, and it is an important defense for banks to resist various kinds of risks. Whether the reserve dial can be extracted scientifically will put the direct impact on bank capital sufficiency and stability and further influence on the ability which banks deal with all kinds of financial risks. After the crisis, the financial surpervsion authorities from all countries strengthen again the research of policies of financial supervision in the commercial bank dial and dynamic adjustment.By the reference to commercial bank risk management theory, the international accounting standards and the new Basel capital accord ", the author takes40big commercial bank section data in2008and14other major commercial Banks’ provision behavior and loan losses in different years, the influence factors of a provision as the researching object and makes the empirical analysis for the commercial bank dial in all aspects of reserve content. Through the establishment of panel data model, using measurement analysis to dial reserve and the relations of economic cycle, the influence of macro and micro factors on the provide reserve quantitative analysis, the author concludes in this paper that the financial system is inherently unstable, specific to banks in granting loans, loan losses, capital and extracting of provision and so on and these aspects have quite obvious economic cycle characteristics and the bank lending practices will aggravate the cyclical economic fluctuation, cause economic conditions worse; however, the present the loan provision system which is on foundation of the occurred loss also has the characteristics of the economy circle:in the period of economic boom, the improvement of the quality of loans makes regulatory capital demand decreases, plus good economic boom expectation, the banks decrease the extraction of the provision; in the period of economic recession, the shortage of provision of reserve will erosion to bank capital and thus to worsen the economic fluctuations. It is thus clear that the current extraction provision system of the banking industry lacks of foresight and prudence, and has played the key role in strengthening the periodicity of the finance system and enlarging the design in standby mode the financial system cycle fluctuations.In view of this, this paper argues that the dynamic dial of anti-economic cycle is an effective way for the dial extraction with prospection and prudence. Dynamic dial will make the banks calculate more extraction provision for loan losses during the economic boom in order to improve the ability to resist risk for the future, and in economic contraction relatively extract few for grants to smooth the bank profits and maintain capital adequacy ratio level, at the same time there is more money for lending, helping ease economic contraction and stimulate economic recovery. The design in standby mode in this paper has been made to be suitable for our country commercial bank’s dynamic dial, and put forward the suggestions and strategies on administrative supervision, fiscal, taxation to perfect our country commercial banks dial so as to promote and perfect effectively our country commercial banks’reserve management mode for dial,and improve the ability of resisting risks by a provision, and to promote our country’s financial industry to integrate into the global economic and financial standards.