Research On Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Of The Port Construction Projects Whole Process

Compared with normal construction projects, port construction projects are larger, have longer construction period and their construction process is more complex. There are some differences in risk factors properties in different stages, such as predictability, measurement, complexity and harmfulness, the whole process of port construction project includes decision-making stage, construction stage and operation stage. There are some traditional construction project risk assessment techniques to identify and evaluate risk factors of the project, such as Fault Tree Analysis, Event Tree Analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, PERT analysis techniques, and most of them assess from one or several aspects. However, these methods are difficult to resolve evaluation of the uncertainty risk factors in different stages of port construction projects. Thus, how to quantify these uncertain risk factors and providing an appropriate evaluation method is the urgent problem of port construction project risk assessment.This paper focuses on inaccuracy risk factors or measureless risk factors in port project different stages and evaluates risk factors in different port project stages. First of all, this paper reviewed the relevant theory research on port project risk assessment and fuzzy risk evaluation application. Then it constructs fuzzy risk assessment in different port project stages, specifically primary fuzzy risk assessment in port project decision-making stage, fuzzy influence diagram risk assessment in port project construction stage, and multidimensional and multilevel fuzzy integration risk assessment in port project operation period. Finally, this paper supplies a case research on Long Hai Ferry Terminal of Xiamen Port, providing a specific, detailed example of fuzzy risk assessment for the whole process of port project.In this paper, the characteristics and innovations mainly are:â‘ the paper uses fuzzy judgment, fuzzy influence diagram and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, provides fuzzy assessment for the decision-making stage, fuzzy influence diagram evaluation for risk factors of the construction stage, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for the risk factors of the operation period;â‘¡divides the port construction project risk into three different stages, such as decision-making stage, construction stage and operation stage;â‘¢this paper supplies a case research on the port construction project of the whole process risk of fuzzy evaluation research, Long Hai Terminal construction project of Xiamen Port. This paper not only gives a set of workable fuzzy evaluation method for the whole process of the port construction project risk factors, but also provides analysis theory and implementation way for other construction projects.